1. Ingeniería

Weekly SET Strategy
February 9-13, 2015
Thai stock market outlook:
Earnings and foreign fund flow to set tone for Thai stocks this
week
• This week more weight would continue to be given to
corporate earnings season in the ICT sector and foreign fund
flow while external factors, especially key market-moving
economic data out of major economies including the likes of
trade balance and CPI reading from China, retail sales
numbers in the US as well as trade balance and GDP figures
from the euro zone, may be a source of day-to-day volatility
for the Thai stock market.
• ADVANC kicked off the earnings season in the ICT sector
late last week. Other ICT-related bellwethers due to release
their earnings results this week include DTAC on Feb 10,
THCOM and JAS on Feb 11 and INTUCH on Feb 13.
THCOM is our most favorite in the ICT space.
• In terms of foreign fund flow, the accelerating pace of net
foreign buying in Thai equities from mid-Jan to present
balanced out net foreign selling since the start of the year but
bouts of foreign selloffs however emerged in bonds. Overall
foreign investors remained on the net selling side in both
Thai equities and bond markets in the YTD. In our view,
overall economic and earnings outlook would dictate the
direction of fresh foreign fund inflows which are likely to take
place before the end of the earnings season or in the latter
half of this month.
• Based on quantitative indicators, the Z-score of P/E crossed back
above the ‘+1SD’ level at 1595 points, flashing a potentially
bullish signal. The upside resistance for the SET index in this
round of bull run is pegged at the ‘+2SD’ level or 1650 points
while the downside should not be below the +0.75SD level or
between 1575-1580 points. For short-term strategy, we still view
any market pullbacks as an opportunity to accumulate positions
to bet on a rebound. Resistance for the SET index is seen at
1625, 1650 points this week.
•
Technical outlook:
SET looking up despite
consolidation
The SET index had moved higher with candlestick
making a series of higher highs for a fifth consecutive
week. The Modified Stochastic now entered overbought
levels on both daily and weekly charts. The odds are still
bullish but the upside looks limited, pointing to a
likelihood of sideways or even a pullback. First
resistance is pegged at 1625 points and a breakout
would open way toward next barrier at 1650 points.
Supprot 1580-1570
Resistance 1625, 1650
Weekly Statistic
YTD Asian Market Return
Price returns (%)
WoW
MTD
YTD
Total Return
YTD US$
Thailand
1.4%
2%
7%
8%
Malaysia
1.2%
1%
2%
0%
Taiwan
0.9%
Philipines
0.7%
Hong kong
0.7%
Indonesia
2%
3%
3%
0%
6%
8%
1%
5%
5%
0%
1%
-1%
0%
2%
3%
0%
1%
-1%
-2%
6%
6%
-1%
5%
8%
-2%
-1%
-2%
18.51
Mean 14.46
15.93
15.40
15.40
15
13.89
13.25
12.70
12.21
11.51
10
5
0.1%
China
Hong Kong
China
Vietnam
Taiwan
Singapore
Indonesia
Thailand
-2.8%
India
Malaysia
-2.8%
Philippines
Vietnam
India
0
-0.4%
Singapore
-3.9%
-5.0% -4.0% -3.0%
-2.0% -1.0%Asian
0.0% 1.0%
2.0%
Performance
of major
currencies
against US dollar
2.5%
Appreciation
19.23
20
0.3%
Korea
2015 (E) P/E ratios of Asian stock markets
25
WOW
MTD
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
5,000
YTD
2.0%
4,000
1.5%
3,000
Unit: Mil US$
2,000
1.0%
1,000
0.5%
0
0.0%
-1,000
Thailand
Philippines
S.Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
Indonesia
5 Feb 15
26 Jan 15
19 Jan 15
12 Jan 15
5 Jan 15
29 Dec 14
Indonesia
Philipines
China
Hong kong
Taiwan
Vietnam
India
Korea
Thailand
Singapore
-2.5%
22 Dec 14
-5,000
15 Dec 14
-4,000
-2.0%
8 Dec 14
-3,000
-1.5%
1 Dec 14
-2,000
-1.0%
Malaysia
Depreciation
-0.5%
India
Source: Bloomberg, data as of Nov 6, 2014
2
Commodity Watch
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Gross Refinery Margin
Positive Negative
54
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
600
400
200
200
JUTHA, PSL,TTA
Baltic Dry Index 564(+0)
0
Jan-15
VIX Index
Negative Positive
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
0
20
Jan-15
1,400
600
Unit: Cents/Ib
KBS, KSL, KTIS
Dec-14
1,600
700
100
Sugar#11
Positive Negative
Nov-14
BDI Index
Positive Negative
300
PX spread 301.47(-76.29)
BJI 67.45(+1.6)
50
800
SET Index
31
26
18
Rubber RSS3 181.9(+2.9)
21
16
180
16
160
14
11
140
Sugar#11 14.62(+0.21)
VIX index 16.85(+0)
6
70
60
70
Jan-15
80
Unit: US$/ounce
SET Index
1,400
90
80
Dec-14
GOLD
Negative Positive
1,500
100
90
Nov-14
100
Oct-14
110
110
Unit: US$/ton
IVL
Sep-14
120
Jan-15
Cotton
Positive Negative
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Unit: US cents/bushel
TVO
CPF, GFPT, TUF
Aug-14
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Soybeans
Positive Negative
Negative Positive
Aug-14
12
120
50
40
58
Oct-14
Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)
Paraxylene (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
220
200
62
Sep-14
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-14
240
Unit: US$/ton
IRPC, PTTGC, TOP
Aromatic Spread
Positive Negative
Sep-14
Unit: US cents/Kg
STA
0
Aug-14
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Rubber RSS3
Positive Negative
70
Aug-14
0
78
Aug-14
Dubai 55.53(+0.59)
82
Jan-15
40
200
HDPE spread 603.38(-26.46)
Dec-14
60
Unit: US$/ton
BANPU
66
400
Nov-14
80
BJI Index (Weekly)
Positive Negative
74
600
Oct-14
100
1,000
800
Sep-14
Jan 15
Dec 14
Nov 14
Oct 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
Unit: US$/bbl
BCP, IRPC, PTTGC
TOP, PTTEP
Dubai
Positive Negative
Unit: US$/ton
IRPC, PTTGC, SCC
Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)
HDPE (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
GRM 8.29(-0.16)
20
Olefin Spread
Positive Negative
Aug-14
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Unit: US$/bbl
BCP, IRPC, PTTGC
TOP
GOLD 1264(+0.25)
1,300
1,200
60
Cotton 61.54(-0.25)
Soybeans 55.18(+2.94)
50
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
1,100
3
Research Team
Fundamental:
Name
Sasikorn Charoensuwan, CFA, CAIA
Rutsada Tweesaengsakulthai
Analyst Reg No.
Capital Market Investment Analyst#9744
Securities Investment Analyst#17972
Tel
662 635 1700#480
662 635 1700#482
Danai Tunyaphisitchai, CFA
Capital Market Investment Analyst #2375
662 635 1700#481
Naree Apisawaittakan
Securities Investment Analyst #17971
662 635 1700#484
Siam Tiyanont
Securities Investment Analyst #17970
662 635 1700#483
Ornmongkol Tantitanatorn
Capital Market Investment Analyst #34100
662 635 1700#491
Adisorn Muangparnchon
Securities Investment Analyst #18577
662 635 1700#497
Vichuda Siriployprakray
Suthanuch Chaisumrej
Chitphan Kwanchit
Securities Investment Analyst #55956
Assistant Analyst
Assistant Analyst
662 635 1700#525
Strategy:
Teerada Charnyingyong
Chutikarn Santimetvirul
Werajak Jungkiatkajorn
Rittiporn Songsermsawad
Phoobate Wiriyayuttama
Securities Investment Analyst #9501
Derivatives Investment Analyst #37928
Capital Market Investment Analyst #28087
Securities Investment Analyst #39756
Assistant Analyst
662 635 1700#487
662 635 1700#491
662 635 1700#495
662 635 1700#527
Technical:
Sasima Hattakitnikorn
Kanoksak Vutipan
Securities Investment Analyst #8328
Capital Market Investment Analyst #32423
662 635 1700#490
662 635 1700#485
Sector
Consumer, Commerce
ICT, Energy, Health
Care
Construction Materials,
Property Development
Agro & Food,
Electronics
Transportation, Media
& Publishing, Tourism
Automotive, Energy,
Packaging
Banking, Securities &
Finance, Insurance
Database & Production:
Manunpat Yuenyongwatanakorn
Sutiporn Oupkaew
Sornsawan Chimklin
Translation:
Chaiyot Ingkhasorarat
Naowarat Angurasuchon
Results Presentation
Score Range
Number of Logo
Less than 50
No logo given
50 - 59
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association
(IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the
Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the
information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the
Market for Alternative disclosure to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The results, therefore, is from the perspective of a third
party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
60 - 69
70 - 79
80 - 89
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report
of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that
data. Phillip Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor
certify the accuracy of such survey result.
90 - 100
Bangkok Offices
4
Offices
Head Office
Srinakarindr
Viphavadi
Yaowarat
Bangkapi 1
Bangkapi 2
Hua Lumphong
Rangsit
Sindhorn
Siam Discovery
15th Fl., Vorawat Bldg. Tel : 0 2635 1700 , 0 2268 0999
17th Fl., Modernform Tower Tel : 0 2722 8344-53
15th Fl., Lao Peng Nguan Tower 1 Tel : 0 2618 8400
19th Fl., Kanchanadhat Bldg. Tel : 0 2622 7833
8th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi Tel : 0 2363 3263
9th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi Tel : 0 2363 3269
4th Fl., Tang Hua Pak Bldg., 320 Rama 4 Rd. Tel : 0 2639 1200
G Fl., Room#PLZ.G.SHP065A Future Park Rangsit Tel : 0 2958 5040
19th Fl., Sindhorn Tower 3 Building, Tel : 0 2650 9717
11st Floor, Unit A2, Siam Tower,Tel : 02 658 0776
Provincial Offices
Chaing Mai
Khon Kaen
Khon Kaen - Rim Bueng
Phisanulok
Had Yai
Had Yai - Petkasem
Suratthan
Chumporn Investor Center
313/15 Moo6 Chaing Mai – Lamphun Nong Hoi, Tel 053-141969
4th Fl., Kow Yoo Hah Bldg.Tel : 0 4332 5044-8
3rd Fl., Arokaya Bldg., Tel : 0 4322 6026
2nd Fl., Thai Sivarat Bldg., Tel : 0 5524 3646
4th Fl., Southland Rubber Bldg., Tel : 0 7423 4095-99110
3rd Fl., Unit 3D, Redar Group Bldg., Tel : 0 7422 3044
62/9 Donnok Rd., Tel : 077 206 131
25/45 Krom Luang Chumporn Rd.,Tel : 0 7757 0652-3
Overseas Offices
SINGAPORE
HONG KONG
MALAYSIA
JAPAN
INDONESIA
CHINA
FRANCE
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
AUSTRALIA
SRI LANKA
TURKEY
INDIA
DUBAI
CAMBODIA
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower Tel : (65) 6533 6001 www.poems.com.sg
Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway, Tel (852) 22776600
www.phillip.com.hk
Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd, Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II Tel (603) 21628841
www.poems.com.my
Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabuto-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) 36662101
PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Tel (62-21) 57900800 www.phillip.co.id
Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Tel (86-21) 51699200
www.phillip.com.cn
King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Flr, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Tel (33-1) 45633100
www.kingandshaxson.com
King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Flr, Candlewick House, Tel (44-20) 7426 5950
www.kingandshaxson.com
Phillip Futures Inc The Chicago Board of Trade Building Tel +1.312.356.9000
PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, Collins Street, Melbourne, Tel (613) 96298380
Fwww.phillipcapital.com.au
Asha Phillip Securities Ltd Level 4, Millennium House, Tel: (+94) 11 2429 100 [email protected]
Hak Menkul Kiymetler A.Ş Dr.Cemil Bengü Cad. Tel: (+90) (212) 296 84 84 (pbx)
[email protected]
PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, C‐ Block, 2nd Floor,Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K.
Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Website: www.phillipcapital.in
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd.601, White Crown Building Plot no 58, Sheikh Zayed Road P.O, Box 212291,
Dubai UAE. Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Website: www.phillipcapital.in
Building No71, St 163, Sangkat Toul Svay Prey I, Khan Chamkarmorn, Phnom Penh, Kingdom of
Cambodia Tel: (855) 23 217 942 Website: www.kredit.com.kh
5
Disclaimers
6
Disclaimers
7