1. Healthcare

Currency Daily
January 29, 2015
Debt market
74
Treasury yields
Closing Yield (%)
Previous Yield (%)
India 10 year
7.71
7.71
US 10 Year
1.72
1.83
EURO 10 Year
0.36
0.39
GBP 10 Year
1.47
1.48
JPY 10 Year
0.29
0.27
RBI reference rate
Close
USD/INR
28-01-15
27-01-15
61.41
61.46
% Change
69.82
69.03
+1.15%
GBP/INR
93.18
92.77
+0.45%
YEN/INR
52.06
52.00
+0.12%
Prev.close
% Chg
-0.02
Spot
Close
Rupee (|)
61.410
61.395
Dollar Index
94.627
94.097
0.56
1.129
1.129
-0.01
0.07
Euro
Government bonds (10-year G-Secs) ended flat as traders remained
circumspect ahead of the central bank’s policy review next week and the
US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outcome due later in the day. The
benchmark 8.40% bond maturing in 2024 ended at | 104.62
•
•
The benchmark 8.40% 2024 bond yield ended flat at 7.71%
British Pound
1.514
1.513
Japanese Yen
118.000
117.530
0.40
Australian ($)
0.789
0.789
0.10
Swiss Franc
0.910
0.905
0.59
•
The rupee was little changed against the US dollar, as demand for the
greenback from oil refiners offset gains from foreign fund inflows into
local stocks. Caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome also
kept the currency in a narrow range
•
The Indian currency ended the day at 61.41, down 0.02% from its
previous close of 61.40
•
The dollar index against six major currencies ended at 94.63, up 0.56%
from its previous close of 94.10
Equity
•
Benchmark indices scaled new record highs before paring gains to end
on a flat note on Wednesday as profit booking finally emerged at higher
levels
•
The BSE Sensex snapped its record eight session rally to settle 11 points
lower at 29559 while the NSE Nifty managed to close just 3 points higher
at 8914. The broader markets ended mixed as the BSE midcap index
gained 0.26% while the small cap index was down 0.48%. As a result,
the overall market breadth was negative
Currency futures (US$/|, NSE)
s
Chg (%)
OI
Vol
Chg (%)
Contracts
LTP
Feb
61.75
0.03
1703328
Mar
62.12
0.03
244586
Feb-Mar
-0.37
--
--
1162679
--
93.8
Mar-Apr
-0.38
--
--
29266
--
38.0
OI
Vol
1239650 30.80
133.6
76971 19.63
72.5
Global Indices
Indices
Close
17191.37
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
4638.00
6825.94
FTSE
DAX
10710.97
24686.19
Hang Seng
Nikkei
17720.05
8871.00
SGX Nifty
* Asian Market at 7:30 am.IST
Change
-195.84
-43.50
14.33
82.39
-137.35
-72.77
-28.00
Change%
-1.13
-0.93
0.21
0.78
-0.55
-0.41
-0.31
Cement above
Commodities
The US treasury yield of the 10-year benchmark closed at 1.83%, down
11 bps from the previous close of 1.83%
Forex (US$/INR)
-0.09%
EURO/INR
Spot
•
Commodities Market
• Crude oil slumped on Wednesday, with US crude prices at near six-year
lows, after the government reported record-high inventories in the US
that raised anxieties about the global oil glut that had pressurised the
market since last summer
• Gold extended losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s
statement that it will remain patient with regard to any interest rate
increase decisions
US$/INR derivatives strategy: Sell February contract
•
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee February
contract on the NSE closed at 61.75. The February contract open interest
was up 30.80% from the previous day
•
•
March contract open interest was up 19.63% from the previous day
We expect the US dollar to meet resilience on rallies against the rupee.
Utilise pullbacks in the US$/INR February contract to sell
Close
Prev. Close
%Chg
1284.35
1292.08
-0.60
Copper
2.522
2.514
0.32
US$/ INR Feb futures contract (NSE)
View: Bearish on US$
Brent Crude
48.47
49.60
-2.28
Sell US$INR in the range of 62.00-62.10
Market Lot: US$1000
Source: Reuters for above all exhibits
Target: 61.83-61.62
Stop Loss: 62.20
Analyst
Support
Resistance
S1/ S2: 61.55/61.35
R1/R2:61.90/62.15
Gold
Amit Gupta
[email protected]
Rohit Gokhale
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Intra-day strategy
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
*Call initiation and update messages will be broadcast on iclick-2-gain”.
Exhibit 1: US$ INR Currency Future (NSE)
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 2: Pivot Levels (NSE)
Futures
US$-INR (Feb)
Pivot
S1
S2
R1
R2
61.709
61.568
61.459
61.818
61.959
US$-INR (Mar)
62.082
61.938
61.834
62.186
62.329
EUR-INR (Feb)
70.106
69.792
69.508
70.389
70.703
EUR-INR (Mar)
70.445
70.263
70.058
70.650
70.833
GBP-INR (Feb)
93.609
93.371
92.974
94.006
94.244
GBP-INR (Mar)
94.178
94.008
93.730
94.455
94.625
JPY-INR (Feb)
52.400
52.100
51.840
52.660
52.960
JPY-INR (Mar)
52.699
52.446
52.212
52.933
53.187
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 3: Strategy follow up
Date
28-Jan-15
Contract
USD/INR
Feb
View
Strategy
Rec.
Target
Bearish
Short Fut
62.09
61.86-61.70
SL
62.24
(P/L)*
Comment
0
Not Initiated
(*Returns are calculated on one lot only)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Exhibit 4: Contract Specification (NSE)
Rate of exchange between one USD and INR
Underlying
FII Activity (Jan 27, 2015)
Segment
Gross Purchase
Gross Sale
Net (| crore)
Equity
7848.34
6742.58
1105.76
Debt
1568.02
1613.59
-45.57
Source: SEBI, CDSL
Trading Hours (Monday to Friday)
09:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m.
Contract Size
USD 1000
Tick Size
0.25 paise or INR 0.0025
Trading Period
Maximum expiration period of 12 months
Contract Months
12 near calendar months
Final Settlement date/ Value date
Last working day of the month (subject to holiday calendars)
Last Trading Day
Two working days prior to Final Settlement Date
Settlement
Cash settled
The reference rate fixed by RBI two days prior to the final
settlement date will be used for final settlement
Final Settlement Price
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
NOTES:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Sell below / above price is a key technical level, which decides the
trend for the day
Initiate the trade within +/— 0.03—0.04 margin from the recommended
level
A return opportunity of about 0.09 paisa is considered for partial profit
booking post initiation of the trade
Once the Call is initiated, an appropriate Stop Loss trigger should be put
for the trade
Once into position, put trailing stops to preserve your profits
Be careful if the counter achieves the target immediately after opening
The strategies are valid only for the date mentioned at the top
Positions should be squared off by the end of the day
The strategies are based on intra-day volatility, suggesting a two-way
approach intra-day
Medium to long-term prospects do not have any bearing on the daily
view
MOST IMP: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates
the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary,
depending upon the entry and exit price and stop losses
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 3
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
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legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The
securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4