Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 - Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership
Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 CONTENTS 1 DEVELOPING THE SKILLS PLAN ....................................................................................2 2 BUILDING SKILLS IN EDUCATION ..................................................................................4 3 TRANSITION INTO WORK ............................................................................................. 10 4 RAISING DEMAND AND IMPROVING SKILLS ............................................................. 17 5 THE LABOUR MARKET AND WORKFORCE IN CUMBRIA......................................... 23 6 SUPPLY OF SKILLS AND LEARNING .......................................................................... 37 7 MEASURES ..................................................................................................................... 44 APPENDIX A: CONSULTEES ................................................................................................ 50 APPENDIX B: CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 51 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 THE SKILLS CHALLENGE IN CUMBRIA Cumbria is on the brink of a genuinely transformational period of activity. Multi-billion pound investments in the energy and manufacturing sectors, alongside the growth of other prominent businesses located in the county, will create demand for tens of thousands of new jobs and will have an enormously beneficial impact on the economy. The opportunities for Cumbrian residents to secure well paid, high quality employment should, with the right training and careers advice, be greater than at any point in the last 25 years. But challenges need to be overcome if Cumbria is to make the most of these once-in-ageneration investments. Too few employers currently provide training opportunities for their staff, the county needs more people qualified to Level 4+ and a significant increase is required in the number of young people studying STEM subjects in post-compulsory education. This is set against a backdrop of a working age population in Cumbria which has been falling since 2007 and which the latest projections show will continue to fall in the years ahead. Whilst numerous major developments are due to take place in the nuclear and manufacturing sectors, opportunities and challenges are also arising in other important sectors, such as tourism, agriculture and the creative industries, all of which have a significant role to play in the future economic prosperity of the county. The Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has therefore produced this Skills Plan in collaboration with employers, business organisations and the county’s network of colleges, universities and other education and training providers. It has been designed to enable the provision of skills and learning to meet the needs of the county over the coming years, and in particular to enable the skills priorities of the Strategic Economic Plan and European Structural and Investment Funds Strategy to be achieved. The Skills Plan is an operational document. It proposes a series of actions, each of which links directly to one or more of the LEP’s strategic priorities for skills. Each action has been assigned a lead organisation(s) which will have responsibility for its implementation and for reporting progress to the Employment and Skills Commission. The success of the plan will be determined by measurable improvements in performance. Better educational attainment, fewer hard to fill vacancies, a more highly skilled workforce and lower youth unemployment are, amongst others, all areas in which targets have been set and where progress will be tracked. Importantly, each of these can also have a positive impact on productivity and economic prosperity. Of course, the Skills Plan will not be the only determinant of whether, and on what scale, the county can take advantage of the forthcoming opportunities. But what it can do is concentrate partners’ efforts around shared objectives which, collectively, should have a significant and positive impact on the skills landscape in Cumbria. The Skills Plan will be a live document that will remain relevant to the local context in Cumbria. It will be reviewed and updated regularly to ensure that the efforts of those involved in delivering the plan are channelled into activities where there is the greatest need for intervention and which can place the county in the best possible position to maximise the opportunities that lay ahead. 1 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 1 DEVELOPING THE SKILLS PLAN Consultation and Research 1.1 The Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 (‘the plan’) was developed between July and November 2014 and involved the following strands of work: Input from education and skills stakeholders: one-to-one and group interviews were held with representatives from schools, Further Education (FE) colleges, universities, training providers, local authorities, Government departments/agencies and others with an interest in education and skills in Cumbria. A full list of the organisations consulted is provided at Appendix A. Input from employers: one-to-one and group interviews were held with a selection of employers based in Cumbria and with business representative organisations. An online survey of employers, which generated 86 responses1, looked specifically at the issue of ‘immediate and critical skills shortages’. Analysis of skills and labour market information: the LEP’s existing employment and skills evidence base was updated with the latest available data. Acknowledgements 1.2 The Cumbria Employment and Skills Commission (ESC) and the Cumbria LEP would like to express their sincere thanks to everyone that has given up their time to contribute to the development of this Skills Plan. Strategic Themes and Sub-Themes 1.3 The Skills Plan has been designed around four strategic themes, within each of which is a number of sub-themes. Shown in the table on the following page, these cover an array of skills related topics, some of which are a high priority now and others which will grow in significance over the years ahead, especially without further intervention. These themes and sub-themes have provided the focus for the consultations that have informed the development of the plan. 1 The survey was circulated by the Cumbria Chamber. 2 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Strategic Theme Sub-Theme STEM related skills (in particular maths, science, bio-science and engineering) Addressing Immediate and Critical Skill Shortages Professional and graduate level skills Craft and technical skills Construction skills Innovation and entrepreneurship Literacy/numeracy and STEM subjects Building Skills in Education Core skills, flexibility and enterprise Skills for sectors with longer term job increases Employability Return to work Transition into Work Increasing Apprenticeship take-up Increasing youth employment options and improved careers guidance Leadership and management skills Project management skills Raising Demand and Improving Skills Upskilling to target workforce skills gaps and progression to higher level qualifications Skills to support growth priorities and new and emerging skills needs The skills needed to sustain the wider economy Structure of the Cumbria Skills Plan 2015-2016 1.4 The actions which the LEP and its partners will take forward are presented in Chapters Two to Four inclusive of the plan: Chapter Two: Building Skills in Education Chapter Three: Transition into Work Chapter Four: Raising Demand and Improving Skills 1.5 Actions relating to the ‘immediate and critical skills shortages’ are highlighted as such within the above chapters. Also highlighted is the theme(s) in Cumbria’s Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) to which each action relates. In practice, many of the actions cut across some or the all of themes in the SEP, reflecting the fact that this is neither a sector nor theme specific plan but one that is intended to benefit Cumbria as a whole. 1.6 Chapters Five and Six provide contextual information about the county’s workforce, labour market and skills profile. Together these chapters act as the underpinning evidence base for the plan. Chapter Seven sets out the targets that will be used to track progress and measure success. 3 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 2 BUILDING SKILLS IN EDUCATION The ‘Building Skills in Education’ theme covers priorities for the delivery of learning in the county’s schools, colleges, universities and other learning and training providers. It is aimed at those learners that have not yet made the transition into employment and aims to ensure that they will be able to do so to the very best of their abilities. What is happening now? Priority B1: Literacy, numeracy and STEM subjects Current education policy places an emphasis on improving literacy and numeracy standards amongst young people. There is now a requirement for people who do not achieve a grade C or above in maths and English at GCSE to continue to study the subjects until the age of 18 and a greater onus is being placed on English and maths in Apprenticeships. GCSE attainment in Cumbria has improved, but the gap with the national average has widened in recent years and, based on 2012/13 data, Cumbria ranks 38th out of the 39 LEP areas in terms of the proportion of learners at Key Stage 4 achieving 5 A*-C GCSEs including maths and English. Various initiatives and organisations, both national and local, are working to encourage more young people to pursue educational pathways and careers in STEM. Whilst attainment in STEM subjects in Cumbria has been improving, too few young people choose to study STEM in post-compulsory education. This is a national problem, but it is particularly apparent in Cumbria where a very significant number of employment opportunities will become available in STEM disciplines. The University Technical College has enjoyed early successes, and there are other examples of good practice (e.g. BAE Systems’ education programme), but more can be done to alert young people and their parents to the range of STEM career opportunities that exist and the rewards they can offer. The parental aspect is particularly important given the influence that parents can have on young people’s education and career choices and the outdated perceptions that some parents still hold of STEM careers. 4 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Priority B2: Core skills, flexibility and enterprise The need for core skills and flexibility is well recognised with ‘jobs for life’, which have historically been available in Cumbria, no longer the norm. Skills providers, from schools to higher education, recognise this and are embracing the importance of core skills, flexibility and equipping learners with appropriate work readiness skills. Nonetheless, employer feedback suggests that they expect higher standards and whilst there are examples of where industry and education are working well together on these issues, the opportunity exists to strengthen those links. The publication of Enterprise for All has reinforced the relevance of enterprise within the education system, both to recognise self-employment as a career option and to ensure that young people gain entrepreneurial skills. Notable recent progress has been made on enterprise education activities in Cumbria, giving rise to the opportunity to take stock of best practice and ensure that high quality enterprise related activities are available to young people across the county. There have been notable recent investments in the skills infrastructure in Cumbria, including (although not limited to) the University Technical College, the Construction Skills Centre at Lakes College and the LGF supported Advanced Manufacturing Training Centre at Furness College. As a priority, a clearer and more comprehensive assessment is needed of the capital investment schemes that providers in Cumbria would like to take forward with support from the LGF, in the event that additional monies become available in the next financial year or beyond. Significant employment and skills needs will be generated by a series of transformational developments in the energy and manufacturing sectors in Cumbria. The precise nature and scale of these requirements are still to be defined and a dialogue is needed between key partners to help accelerate progress and ensure that the needs can be met. Current forecasts predict notable growth in employment in hospitality, retail and professional and other services, plus high proportionate growth (from a low base) in information and communications. Current research gives some high level indications of what the associated skills needs are likely to be (with IT being common). Further qualitative dialogue with employers in these sectors, where appropriate facilitated through the private sector representatives of the LEP, will help to articulate the skills needs in more detail and will enable providers to respond accordingly. While provision will generally respond to market need, the response can be made more timely and strategic by having greater clarity from employers on their specific requirements. Alongside this, it is essential that learners of all ages and in all educational settings are given up to date and impartial advice on the opportunities that exist in growth sectors. Priority B3: Skills for sectors with longer term job increases 5 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Building Skills in Education actions Key: Action Lead Cumbria LEP Schools Employers Local authorities Government departments and agencies Skills providers Other (specified in each case) Ref. Action B1a Design and commission a project(s), supported by the European Social Fund and not duplicating the 16-19 Study Programme/Traineeships, to provide additional personalised literacy and numeracy support for young people at risk of becoming NEET. Priority should be given to provision in Barrow-inFurness, Copeland and Allerdale, all of which have above average NEET rates. Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes Y Cross-cutting Skills Funding Agency Cumbria LEP Skills providers Skills providers B1b Explore options for developing a business education partnership model in Cumbria. This would allow teachers and tutors in skills providers across the education spectrum to undertake industry placements in STEM based companies (complementing existing work experience programmes for young people) and will help them to convey an accurate and up to date view of the opportunities and requirements of that sector to their learners 2. Local authorities Schools N Advanced Manufacturing Growth Nuclear and Energy Excellence Employers 2 The model currently in operation in North Yorkshire may be a useful reference point. 6 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Ref. Action B1c Design and commission a project, exploring options for external support and involving relevant partners, to develop resources and activities aimed at improving parents’ knowledge and understanding of careers in STEM in Cumbria3. Priority should be given to provision in those parts of the county with the lowest participation rates in STEM subjects in post-compulsory education and should also involve teachers and head teachers in those areas. B1d Ensure that the latest projections about the scale and types of career opportunities that will be generated by the transformational developments in Cumbria are shared with schools, colleges, universities and careers advice services and are adapted into young people friendly formats that add value to local authority activities. Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Employers Cumbria LEP Local authorities Y Centre of Nuclear Excellence Advanced Manufacturing Growth Nuclear and Energy Excellence Careers advice services Cogent (SSC for the Science Industries) plus representatives of other sectors where appropriate Related SEP Themes Y Advanced Manufacturing Growth Nuclear and Energy Excellence Local authorities Schools B2a Review and better understand the impacts of the different approaches to enterprise education in place across the county with a view to ensuring that providers and young people can benefit from good practice4. Enterprise Educators Group Skills providers Y Cross-cutting 3 The Raising Attitudes, Aspirations and Achievements project (RA3) in South Yorkshire (part of the Yorkshire and Humber STEM Programme) included parental involvement and education in its remit and could provide valuable learning and pointers. 4 In addition to identifying and reviewing good practice already taking place within the county, the Youth Enterprise scheme in Hull may be a useful reference point. It provides, amongst other things, a youth enterprise bank, hot desking facility for young entrepreneurs, free business advice and support and advice on applications for funding. 7 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes Skills providers Y Cross-cutting Skills Funding Agency N Infrastructure Improvements Ref. Action Lead Supporting B2b Develop a pilot project for Enterprise Advisers, as proposed in the Lord Young Review (Enterprise for All) to support schools and other education and skills providers in deriving the maximum benefit from the range of enterprise schemes currently in existence. Enterprise Educators Group B3a Undertake a second call for Expressions of Interest for skills capital projects that providers would like to be supported through the Local Growth Fund, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of demand, impact and value for money. Cumbria LEP B3b A dialogue is required across key partners (employers, skills providers and the LEP) to discuss how the projected increases in demand for skilled labour (including project managers) in the energy and manufacturing industries will be met in terms of: a) b) c) B3c Cumbria LEP Skills providers physical capacity to provide training human resource capacity to provide training cost and funding implications of any expansions in a) and b) Undertake further qualitative research (and draw on the findings of research that is currently underway) on the specific skills needs of employers in sectors that are forecast to grow, e.g. hospitality, retail, information and communications, nuclear and advanced manufacturing. The research should test the growth projections with employers and identify the specific roles and skills that are likely to be in greater demand, allowing providers to respond accordingly with skills provision and IAG5. Advanced Manufacturing Growth Y Nuclear and Energy Excellence Employers Infrastructure Improvements Cumbria LEP Employers N Cross-cutting 5 Similar work is currently being taken forward by the Greater Birmingham and Solihull (GBS) LEP who are commissioning in-depth, qualitative research (which they refer to as ‘deep dive’) to understand employers’ skills needs in key sectors in as much detail as possible. A discussion with the GBS LEP may therefore be beneficial. 8 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Building Skills in Education timetable Action Start Finish B1a: additional literacy and numeracy support for young people at risk of becoming NEET. Q1 2015 Q4 2018 B1b: Business education partnership. Q1 2015 Ongoing B1c: Improving parents’ knowledge and understanding of careers in STEM in Cumbria. Q2 2015 Ongoing B1d: Sharing projections on transformational developments in Cumbria with schools, colleges, universities and careers advice services. Q1 2015 Ongoing B2a: Review and better understand the impacts of the different approaches to enterprise education. Q2 2015 Q3 2015 B2b: Enterprise Advisers pilot project. Q3 2015 Q3 2017 B3a: Second call for Expressions of Interest for skills capital projects. Q4 2014 Q1 2015 B3b: Dialogue across key partners on how the projected increases in demand for skilled labour in the energy and manufacturing industries will be met. Q4 2014 Ongoing B3c: Qualitative research on the specific skills needs of employers in sectors that are forecast to grow. Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1: January to March Q2: April to June Q3: July to September Q4: October to December 9 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 3 TRANSITION INTO WORK The ‘Transition into Work’ theme covers those priorities that will help Cumbria’s residents, both young people and adults, to access and sustain rewarding employment opportunities. What is happening now? Priority T1: Employability Providers across the full skills spectrum now place a significant emphasis on employability and work readiness. Notable progress has been made on this topic and employers in Cumbria are, on average, now more positive than employers across England as a whole about the work readiness of the people that they interview for jobs, and especially those with higher level skills. Yet there is still room for improvement and anecdotal feedback from employers suggests that they would like the work readiness of young people to be better. A coordinated approach, facilitated by the LEP and involving a closer dialogue between employers and skills providers, would help to make further inroads into the issue. Supporting people that are out of work to re-skill, up-skill and/or build the confidence to secure employment or enter self-employment will be very important for Cumbria in light of the significant forthcoming demand for skilled labour and the projections of a falling working age population. Previous schemes have been run in the county, supported by European funding, to help people make a successful return to work. These provide a very useful platform upon which to identify what has worked well and to design new or continuation projects via the opt-in arrangements with the Department for Work and Pensions. Employer sponsored initiatives, such as the Ready for Work project with Sellafield, have been successful in helping people to secure employment locally, and could provide the blueprint for similar schemes elsewhere in the county. Priority T2: Return to work 10 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Apprenticeship take-up has been growing steadily in Cumbria and doubled between 2008/09 and 2012/13. Based on existing projections, demand for apprentices in the energy and manufacturing sectors will grow significantly over the coming years, as will demand in the nuclear and manufacturing supply chains (hence the introduction of the Supply Chain Apprenticeships for Nuclear grant scheme). Research has consistently shown Apprenticeships to be amongst the most commercially advantageous learning routes, although the forthcoming reforms (with funding routed through employers) gives rise to concerns that smaller employers in particular will turn away from the programme. Ensuring that support and co-ordination functions are available to SMEs across Cumbria is likely to be important. Traineeships have been introduced by Government to help more young people achieve the skills and attributes needed to secure an Apprenticeship. Plans are being made to drive up the number of employers participating in Traineeships in Cumbria and the private sector representatives of the LEP could help to stimulate interest in this within their sectors. European funding could provide the opportunity to extend the work placement element of Traineeships in Cumbria, to give both the young person and their employer a better appreciation of what each has to offer. Whilst youth unemployment overall in Cumbria is in line with national averages, it is falling more slowly than elsewhere and there are concentrations in Barrow, Copeland and Allerdale. Private-public initiatives designed to address youth unemployment, such as the Movement to Work scheme, have signed up some employers in Cumbria, but more could be done to get a more diverse range of employers involved. The direct link between youth unemployment (and indeed unemployment generally) and social exclusion must also be recognised. There is a strong case for targeting parts of the new European programme at activities to reduce youth unemployment in the aforementioned hotspots. Responsibility for careers guidance sits with schools but restrictions on resources and the demands of the national curriculum mean that it sometimes assumes a lesser priority than it ideally should. Measures such as the proposed employability chartermark (action T1a) and the business education partnership model (action B1b) can help, as can equipping skills providers (including schools) with the latest projections on the employment opportunities that will be generated through the major developments in the nuclear and manufacturing sectors (action B1d). Priority T3: Increase Apprenticeship take-up Priority T4: Increasing youth employment options and improved careers guidance 11 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Transition into Work actions Key: Action Lead Cumbria LEP Schools Employers Local authorities Government departments and agencies Skills providers Other (specified in each case) Ref. Action T1a Develop an employer-led ‘employability chartermark’, drawing on examples of effective practice from elsewhere in England, to strengthen the alignment between employers’ requirements and preferences on work readiness and young people’s attributes6. As in other areas, the chartermark could also include agreements over access to work experience, up to date information on career routes, mock interviews and workplace visits. T2a 6 Using monies from the new European Social Fund programme, and incorporating effective practice from the Redundancy Taskforce, design and develop a countywide project to support the re-training of staff affected by redundancy to apply their skills to new opportunities, particularly in areas of high skills demand (e.g. construction and engineering) and in growth sectors, whether through employment or self-employment. This should cover both technical skills and employability (CV writing, interviews etc) recognising that some people being made redundant will not have had to apply for a job for many years. Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes N Cross-cutting Y Cross-cutting Skills providers Cumbria LEP Schools Employers Skills providers Cumbria LEP Employers The chartermark developed by the West of England LEP would be a useful starting point. See http://www.westofenglandlep.co.uk/people-and-skills/chartermark 12 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Ref. Action Lead T2b Initiate a discussion with large employers across the county to explore the potential for using existing models including Ready for Work and Creating Careers in Cumbria (which were based on the concept of Sector Based Work Academies, with extra support) as the basis for other sector-based local recruitment schemes targeting the unemployed. Department for Work and Pensions T2c Ensure that existing schemes, e.g. Cumbria Wheels 2 Work, are promoted as widely as possible as a means of addressing transport as a barrier to employment (many times during the consultation work undertaken for this plan, the scarcity of public transport services outside of conventional working hours was highlighted as an issue affecting (un)employment and return-to-work). Inspira T2d Review the success of current and previous return to work schemes in Cumbria, building lessons learned and effective practice into the design of new/continuation projects to be part-funded through the new European Social Fund programme, including those targeting the unemployed aged 50+ and which address literacy and numeracy as a barrier to employment. Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes N Cross-cutting N Cross-cutting N Cross-cutting Employers Cumbria LEP - Skills providers Cumbria LEP Department for Work and Pensions 13 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Ref. Action Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes N Cross-cutting N Cross-cutting Develop an Apprenticeship Strategy to include consideration of LEP leadership in: a) b) T3a T3b Providing a co-ordination function for Apprenticeships (including Higher Apprenticeships) to share the burdens of on-the-job training and mitigate the risk of smaller employers not engaging following funding changes Encouraging Apprenticeship take up amongst employers of all sizes and sectors, including those operating in the rural economy c) Aligning Apprenticeship frameworks with identified growth sectors to support the supply of skills d) Informing Apprenticeship focused IAG for young people, both during and post compulsory education e) Supporting Apprenticeship marketing activities, e.g. through employer events and Apprenticeship Ambassador activities f) Continuing to give full endorsement to the proposed programme of Higher Apprenticeship activity across a range of subject areas. Increase the number of employers participating in Traineeships, especially in areas of high youth unemployment where it is often difficult for young people to secure an Apprenticeship and/or to progress into skilled work and higher level training. Skills providers Cumbria LEP Employment and Skills Commission Local authorities Private sector representatives of the Cumbria LEP Skills providers Employers 14 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Ref. Action T3c Using monies from the new European Social Fund programme, design and develop a project to extend the work experience element of Traineeships (e.g. via wage subsidies or employer grants). Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Themes N Cross-cutting Skills providers Cumbria LEP Employers T4a Use the influence of the private sector representatives on the LEP to encourage more employers to participate in personalised schemes aimed at addressing youth unemployment, e.g. Movement to Work. Private sector representatives of the Cumbria LEP Employers N Cross-cutting T4b Review the success of current and previous youth unemployment schemes (and the Performance Outcome Framework) that have run in Cumbria, building lessons learned and effective practice into the design of new/continuation personalised projects to be part-funded through the new European Social Fund programme and targeted at areas with above average rates of NEETs (taking care not to duplicate the 16-19 Study Programme/Traineeships). Cumbria LEP Department for Work and Pensions N Cross-cutting T4c For actions relating to careers information, advice and guidance, see B1b, B1d and T1a. - - - - 15 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Transition into Work timetable Action Start Finish T1a: Employability chartermark. Q2 2015 Ongoing T2a: Project to support the re-training of staff affected by redundancy. Q1 2015 Q4 2018 T2b: Explore the potential for using Ready for Work as the basis for other local employment schemes. Q3 2015 Ongoing T2c: Promote existing schemes which seek to overcome transport as a barrier to work. Q1 2015 Q1 2015 T2d: ESF funded ‘return to work’ schemes, building in lessons learned from existing/previous projects. Q1 2015 Q4 2018 T3a: Establish an Apprenticeships strategy for Cumbria. Q3 2015 Q2 2016 T3b: Increase the number of employers participating in Traineeships. Q4 2015 Ongoing T3c: Extend the work experience element of Traineeships. Q4 2015 Q4 2018 T4a: Encourage more employers to participate in youth unemployment schemes. Q2 2015 Ongoing T4b: ESF funded youth unemployment schemes, building in lessons from existing/previous projects. Q1 2015 Ongoing T4c: See timescales for actions B1b, B1d and T1a - - Q1: January to March Q2: April to June Q3: July to September Q4: October to December 16 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 4 RAISING DEMAND AND IMPROVING SKILLS The ‘Raising Demand and Improving Skills’ theme sets out priorities to improve the skills of Cumbria’s workforce in response to current and emerging employment opportunities. The priorities and supporting actions are intended to encourage employers to invest in skills development and ensure that the right skills are available to support growth. What is happening now? Effective leadership and management is essential to business performance and, by extension, to the prosperity of the Cumbrian economy. Research undertaken for this plan and for other purposes has highlighted the need to improve leadership and management skills across a range of sectors and especially amongst the SME community in Cumbria. The new European programme provides the opportunity to do this through a bespoke programme of intervention, drawing on the expertise of local stakeholders, including the Centre for Leadership Performance. With major programmes of capital development and rolling investment planned in Cumbria, there is an existing demand for skilled project managers and the scale of this demand is set to increase significantly over the coming years. Anecdotal feedback suggests that the localised shortages are influenced in part by the financial power of some of the county’s larger employers, making it difficult for smaller organisations to attract and retain high quality project managers. Priority R1: Leadership and management skills Priority R2: Project management skills 17 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Priority R3: Upskilling to target workforce skills gaps and progression to higher level skills Priority R4: Skills needed to support growth priorities and new and emerging skills needs Priority R5: Skills needed to sustain the wider economy A smaller proportion of employers in Cumbria provide training for their staff than in any other LEP area, alongside which the county has too few people qualified to Level 4+, especially given the forecast increase in demand for higher level skills. Maintaining this status quo will not enable the county’s employers and employees to maximise the opportunities that the forthcoming large-scale investments will present. When asked, many employers say that there is ‘no particular reason’ why they do not provide training, suggesting that they may not be aware of the areas in which some additional workforce development activities could benefit them. Models of training needs analyses and a simple ‘employer interface’ for workforce development support should be explored to assess their suitability for Cumbria. Project based placements and internships for HE students and graduates are shown to be an effective way of broadening young people’s employability skills and engaging SMEs in graduate recruitment. The universities with a presence in Cumbria have undertaken commendable work in this area (e.g. through the ‘Unite with Business’ project) and this should be continued and/or expanded where possible. Demand for construction, manufacturing and engineering skills is forecast to rise exponentially and there is a need for employers, skills providers and the LEP to work together to identify how many people will be required, the skills they will need and the physical and human resource capacity needed to ensure that they are appropriately trained (see action B3b). The visitor economy in Cumbria performs well, although feedback suggests that some employers could make more of the international tourism market and could become more skilled and successful at online marketing and e-commerce. New and existing research has highlighted emerging skills needs across a broad range of other sectors, including retail, wholesale, logistics, food and drink, land based, tourism and creative and cultural (these are summarised towards the end of Chapter 5). Whilst the research tends to provide only high level pointers, it offers a sufficient basis upon which providers can engage in further dialogue with employers and propose workforce development interventions that could be supported through the new European programme. Alongside the forthcoming programme of major investments in Cumbria, there is a need to respond to the skills requirements of the wider economy. With an ageing population and workforce, consideration must be given to replacement demand across a wide range of sectors (including within those that may be in decline overall), as well as planning for growth. The rural economy could benefit from its employers being more skilled in diversification and commercialisation (some would argue that this is essential), whilst the forecast growth in the care sector also needs to be considered. 18 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Raising Demand and Improving Skills actions Key: Action Lead Cumbria LEP Schools Employers Local authorities Government departments and agencies Skills providers Other (specified in each case) Ref. Action R1a and R2a Using the new European Social Fund, design and develop a project to stimulate take-up of leadership and management (including project management) and innovation skills training amongst SMEs7, building on existing initiatives where they have been successful and drawing on local expertise. Research suggests that employers in retail, land-based industries, the creative industries and logistics would all benefit. R3a Using the new European Social Fund (via an opt-in arrangement with the SFA), continue to provide a workforce development offer similar to that currently provided through The Edge, ensuring that lessons learned from current/previous delivery and considerations around sectoral targeting in line with the LEP’s priorities are factored in. See also action R4d (emerging skills needs) which has direct links with the issue of workforce skills gaps. Lead Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Theme Y Business Support N Business Support Skills Funding Agency Cumbria LEP Skills providers Skills Funding Agency Cumbria LEP Skills providers Employers 7 SMEs have repeatedly been highlighted as the group in most need of leadership and management skills development, although the consultations undertaken for this plan also identified employers operating in the public and third sectors as potential beneficiaries. 19 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Theme - N Business Support Cumbria LEP N Cross-cutting N Cross-cutting Ref. Action Lead Supporting R3b Liaise with the accountable body for the Leeds City Region Skills Hub to explore the suitability and transferability of a model similar to the Skills Hub for Cumbria. The Skills Hub aims to allow employers to easily and simply navigate a number of funding streams to establish what funding opportunities for training are available to them and how they can be accessed. It also enables employers to gain access to bespoke skills assessments with expert advisors at no cost. Skills provider (nominated by the ESC) R3c Continue to provide extra-curricular activities for HE students and graduates, e.g. project based placements and internships with SMEs, drawing on the new European programme where appropriate and targeting priority and growth sectors. Skills providers R3d Support and actively promote progression to higher level qualifications, including through the take up of Higher Apprenticeships and recognising the need to provide members of the workforce qualified up to Level 8, in response to employer needs. Cumbria LEP Employment and Skills Commission R4a R4b The need to identify and articulate the scale and type of skills that will be required through the transformational developments in the energy and manufacturing sectors is conveyed in action B3b. Linked to this is the need to ensure a sufficient pipeline of generic and specialist construction training provision (where appropriate working in partnership with other LEPs), recognising a forecast peak in demand between 2020 and 2022. Using monies through the new European programme, design and develop a project to support employers operating in the tourism sector to improve their awareness of, and exposure to, international markets, including through the more effective use of technology and social media. Skills providers Cumbria LEP Skills providers Employers Advanced Manufacturing Growth Employers Y Nuclear and Energy Excellence Skills Funding Agency Skills providers N Vibrant Rural and Visitor Economy 20 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Ref. Action Lead R4c IT skills gaps have emerged not only as an issue for many employers now, but also as an area that is likely to grow in significance over time. This covers basic IT competencies through to systems analysts, people who can run networked systems and skilled programmers. Employers in retail (to support multi-channel retailing), leisure, logistics and the creative and digital industries have all flagged IT skills as an issue, although it is also likely to extend well beyond these sectors. An IT skills project should be considered as a priority through the new European programme. Cumbria LEP R4d In addition to those already highlighted, there are numerous emerging skills needs across various sectors, as summarised in the table at the end of Chapter 5. In all of these sectors, qualitative dialogue with employers will help to add more precision on scale, urgency and specific needs, the results from which can then feed into the design and development of workforce development projects, where appropriate supported by the new European programme. Cumbria LEP Employment and Skills Commission R5a Using monies secured through the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, design and develop a project to improve the commercialisation, diversification and land management skills of agriculture employers, their supply chains and other rural and land-based employers in Cumbria. Supporting Immediate and Critical Skills Shortage? Related SEP Theme N Business Support N Business Support N Vibrant Rural and Visitor Economy Skills Funding Agency Skills providers Employers DEFRA Cumbria LEP Skills providers 21 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Raising Demand and Improving Skills timetable Action Start Finish R1a and R2a: Leadership and management training for SMEs (supported by ESF). Q1 2015 Q4 2018 R3a: Continuation of The Edge, building in lessons from current/previous delivery. Q1 2015 Q4 2018 R3b: Explore options for a Skills Hub for Cumbria (building on the Leeds City Region model). Q2 2015 Q3 2015 R3c: Project based placements and internships with SMEs for HE students and graduates. Q1 2015 Q4 2018 R3d: Support progression to higher level qualifications. Q2 2015 Q4 2018 R4a: Ensure a sufficient pipeline of generic and specialist construction training provision. Q2 2015 Ongoing R4b: Support tourism employers to access international markets (supported by ESF). Q1 2015 Q4 2018 R4c: IT skills project (supported by ESF). Q1 2015 Q4 2018 R4d: Further qualitative research on emerging skills needs, leading to the design of workforce development projects. Q2 2015 Q4 2018 R5a: Project to improve the commercialisation and diversification skills of agriculture employers in Cumbria. Q2 2015 Q4 2018 Q1: January to March Q2: April to June Q3: July to September Q4: October to December 22 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 5 THE LABOUR MARKET AND WORKFORCE IN CUMBRIA Population Profile 5.1 Cumbria has a population of nearly 500,000 people, which is approximately 1% of the population of England. A higher proportion of the Cumbrian population is aged 65+ than across England as a whole and a smaller proportion is of working age (see below). Population Figures: 2013 Cumbria Age group England No. % % 0 to 15 82,100 16% 19% 16 to 64 305,600 61% 64% 65+ 110,400 22% 17% Total 498,100 100% 100% Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 2013. Cumbria percentages do not sum to 100% due to rounding. 5.2 The population change in Cumbria over the past decade has been distinctly different to that observed nationally. Between 2003 and 2013, Cumbria saw a net population change of +6,800 residents (a 1% increase), whereas nationally over the same period the population grew by 8%. However, what is more significant, especially given the substantial increases in demand for skilled labour that are forecast, is that the county’s population has been in decline since 2008 while the population nationally has been growing steadily. Population Change 2003 - 2013 540,000 530,000 520,000 510,000 500,000 490,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cumbria England Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 5.3 The working age population of Cumbria, i.e. those aged 16 to 64, has also been in decline. Following a slight increase between 2003 and 2007, a fall of more than 12,000 working age residents (4% of the total) occurred to 2013. Nationally, the working age population increased by approximately 7% over the same period. 23 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 5.4 Projections suggest that this pattern is set to continue. Based on data from the Office for National Statistics, Cumbria’s population is projected to decline by almost 6,000 residents (1.2%) between 2012 and 2037, compared with a projected increase nationally of 16%. Over the shorter term (2012 to 2017), Cumbria’s population is expected to decline by -0.3% (1,400 residents), the vast majority of which is accounted for by Barrow-in-Furness (-700 residents) and Copeland (-600 residents). Population Projections: 2012 – 2037 Population projections (No.) 2012 2017 2037 499,100 497,700 493,200 2012 - 2017 2017 - 2037 2012 - 2037 -1,400 -4,500 -5,900 2012 - 2017 2017 - 2037 2012 - 2037 Cumbria -0.3% -0.9% -1% England 4% 12% 16% Cumbria Population change (No.) Cumbria Population change (%) Source: ONS 5.5 Cumbria’s working age population is also expected to contract, from an estimated 314,800 in 2012 to 262,400 in 2037 – a change of -17% against an expected increase nationally of 5%. By contrast, the number of Cumbrian residents aged 65+ is set to increase by more than half (from 107,600 to 162,400) over the same period. 5.6 These projections do not factor in the population effects of the proposed major investments in the energy and manufacturing sectors and growth in other sections of the economy, but even so, they make for concerning reading. They also emphasise the importance of Cumbrian employers providing high quality training opportunities for their current (and future) employees, although as revisited later in this chapter, the statistics show that, on average, employers in Cumbria are less likely than employers in any other LEP area to make training available. The attraction of new, skilled employees into the county may also be necessary to address demand. 24 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Economic Activity 5.7 At the time of the 2011 Census8, nearly four fifths of the Cumbrian working age population (79%) were economically active9. The county performed well on this metric against England as whole, where the equivalent figure was 77%. Across the Cumbrian economically active population, 94% were in employment at the time of the survey and 6% were unemployed, which is a slightly more positive picture than for England overall. However, the employment rate at the time varied at the district level (and continues to do so), from 97% in South Lakeland and Eden to 92% in Barrow-in-Furness. 5.8 The most common forms of economic inactivity recorded via the Census were retirement (accounting for a third of the economically active population in the county) and long-term sickness or disability (accounting for a quarter). In both cases these proportions were notably higher than the national equivalents. By contrast, being a student and, to a lesser extent, looking after a family or home were, at the time of the Census, less prevalent reasons in Cumbria than they were nationally. At a district level, the main differences in the economic (in)activity data were as follows: Higher levels of long term sickness and disability in Barrow-in-Furness: over a third of economic inactivity (34%) in Barrow was, at the time of the Census, accounted for by residents with long term sickness or a disability. Elsewhere in the county this ranged from 16% in South Lakeland to 26% in Carlisle. Higher levels of retirement in South Lakeland, Eden and Allerdale: over a third of the economically inactive residents in these districts (43%, 38% and 34% respectively) were retirees. The next highest was Copeland with 31%, while Barrow had the lowest proportion at 26%. Youth Unemployment 5.9 The level of youth unemployment and non-participation in learning across Cumbria as a whole is in line with the national average (the NEET 10 rate in 2013 was 5% in Cumbria and 5% nationally). However, this masks the following important points: Youth unemployment is falling more slowly in Cumbria than in many other parts of the country. Between 2009 and 2013, the reduction in Cumbria was 1.7%, compared with a reduction nationally of 3%. There are hotspots in Cumbria – namely Barrow-in-Furness, Copeland and Allerdale – where the rates of youth unemployment are significantly higher than both the county-wide and national averages. The actions in Chapter Three reflect this and Cumbria LEP’s preference is to use 2011 Census data rather than more recent Annual Population Survey data for this analysis. 9 Economic activity in this context relates to whether or not a person who was aged 16 to 64 was working or looking for work in the week before the 2011 Census. Rather than a simple indicator of whether or not someone was in employment, it provides a measure of whether or not a person was an active participant in the labour market. 10 Not in education, employment or training 8 25 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 propose ongoing intervention, supported where appropriate through European funding, to help reduce the prevalence of youth unemployment in these areas. Jobseekers Allowance Claimants aged 18 – 24 2013 2009 - 2013 Claimants (No.) Claimants (as % of population aged 18 – 24) Change (% points) Barrow-in-Furness 465 8.5% -1.0% Copeland 375 7.1% -1.6% Allerdale 435 6.3% -1.5% England 239,625 4.9% -3.0% 1,800 4.8% -1.7% Carlisle 330 3.4% -2.5% South Lakeland 135 2.1% -1.1% 60 1.6% -2.2% Cumbria Eden Source: Department for Work and Pensions Employment by Sector 5.10 In 2012, there were 214,800 employees in Cumbria based businesses11. The sectors with the highest number of employees were wholesale and retail (17% of all employees), manufacturing (16%), human health and social work (14%) and hospitality (11%), collectively accounting for over half of all employment in the county. Each of these sectors, and especially manufacturing, is overrepresented in employment terms in Cumbria compared with England as a whole. % of employees High employment sectors 2012 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Wholesale and retail trade Manufacturing Cumbria Human health and Accommodation social work and food services England Source: BRES 11 The Cumbria Strategic Economic Plan gives an adjusted (and higher) figure to include agriculture, which is excluded from local level BRES data. 26 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 5.11 Underrepresented sectors in Cumbria include education, administration and support services, professional, scientific and technical, information and communication, and financial and insurance services. 5.12 Between 2009 and 2012, the number of employees in Cumbria fell by -0.5% or 1,100 jobs. Nationally over the same period, the number of jobs increased by 0.7%, although since 2011, Cumbria’s figures (which show a slight increase) are more closely aligned with the national trend. At a sector level in Cumbria: Growth sectors: health and social work (+2,400 jobs), transport and storage (+1,500 jobs) and business services (+1,100 jobs) saw the most significant growth between 2009 and 2012, in each case matching or outstripping national growth in proportionate terms, especially in the transport and storage sector. Declining sectors: education (-1,800 jobs)12, real estate (-1,400 jobs) and manufacturing (-1,300 jobs) saw the most substantial reductions. In each of these sectors, the proportionate reductions were larger than those observed nationally. 5.13 The Cumbria LEP Business Plan identified four priority sectors – specialist manufacturing, energy, the visitor economy, and food and drink – each of which is also cited in the SEP as being central to the future economic prosperity of the county. Together, these sectors accounted for nearly a third of total employment (32%) and nearly a fifth of all businesses (17%) in Cumbria in 2012. In employment terms, and compared with the national position, each sector is over-represented in Cumbria, most significantly so in energy. At the end of this chapter, under the heading ‘Emerging Skills Needs’, key findings from research supported by the ESF Local Response Fund, and a subsequent project commissioned by the Cumbria ESC, highlight the skills needs that exist in these and other important sectors for the Cumbrian economy. Employment in Priority Sectors: 2012 Cumbria England No. % % Visitor economy 36,400 16% 12% Specialist manufacturing 20,100 9% 6% Energy (and nuclear) 9,700 4% 0.6% Food and drink manufacturing 4,600 2% 1% 70,800 32% 20% Total Source: BRES 12 Part of the decline in the education sector is as a result of reclassification of employment where schools have been taken over as academies and the jobs have been classified in alternative sectors depending on the academy sponsor. 27 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Occupations 5.14 In 201113, Cumbrian residents were most commonly employed in skilled trades (16%), professional (14%) or elementary (12%) occupations. Compared with the situation nationally, employment in skilled trade and process, plant and machine operator occupations was overrepresented, while employment in professional and associate professional and technical occupations was underrepresented. The differences are accounted, in part at least, by the relatively high levels of employment in the manufacturing and construction sectors in Cumbria and by low levels of employment in the professional and financial sectors. % of all occupations Occupational Profile 2011 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Census Cumbria England 5.15 Only relatively small variations existed (at the time of the Census) in the occupational profile at the district level. These included: Professional occupations: a slightly higher proportion of residents in South Lakeland were employed in managerial (13%) and professional (16%) occupations than in the other five districts. Skilled trades: Eden had the highest proportion of residents working in skilled trades. Employment in caring, leisure and other services was, in proportionate terms, highest in Barrow-in-Furness (12%). Occupational Profile by Local Authority: 2011 13 Occupational analysis in this section uses data from the 2011 Census as the Cumbria LEP considers this to be more robust than data from the Annual Population Survey. 28 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Allerdale BarrowinFurness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland Managers & directors 10% 8% 9% 9% 12% 13% Professional 13% 15% 12% 15% 13% 16% Associate professional 9% 10% 9% 11% 9% 10% Admin and secretarial 9% 10% 11% 9% 9% 9% 17% 16% 14% 16% 20% 16% 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 7% 7% 8% 10% 8% 12% 11% 9% 6% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 12% Skilled trades Caring, leisure and other services Sales and customer service Process plant and machine operatives Elementary Source: Census 2011 Employment Projections: Early Stage Nuclear Forecasts 5.16 Early estimates of the employment potential of the nuclear sector in Cumbria have been assembled by the Centre of Nuclear Excellence (CoNE), ahead of the release of more detailed forecasts by Cogent (the Sector Skills Council for the science industries) in 2015. Indicative Scale of Growth Based principally on the acceleration of decommissioning at Sellafield, the Moorside nuclear new build project and the start of the new Successor programme at BAE Systems in Barrow, CoNE’s assessment suggests there will be: A peak in overall resource demand in 2024 of 7,050 additional jobs (i.e. jobs that do not exist now), around half of which will be in mechanical and electrical engineering disciplines; A significant ramping up in demand between 2020 (2,000 new jobs) and 2021 (5,600 new jobs); A peak in demand for civil engineers in 2021/22 (3,200 new jobs); 1,000 new project management and administration staff needed in 2021, rising to 1,400 in 2024; An increase in demand for operational staff from 2019, peaking at 1,200 jobs in 2023 and remaining at that level from then on. These are significant numbers, but they represent only a proportion of the true scale of demand that will arise over the coming years. For example, they do not include increased outsourcing by Sellafield of jobs to the supply chain, major construction projects on the Sellafield site to support decommissioning, or projects associated with Pu residues. 29 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 5.17 Even based on these figures alone, the challenge for the skills system is evident. If it is assumed that just 10% of the demand in the CoNE figures will be met by learners coming through the Cumbrian skills system, then an estimated 1,000 additional starts (compared with the 2014 position) will be needed in 2020, which includes c. 350 starts on electrical/mechanical engineering Level 3 Apprenticeships, and c. 325 starts on civil engineering Apprenticeships at Level 2. More immediately, an additional 200 starts, including 100 electrical/mechanical engineering Apprenticeships at Level 3, will be required in 2017. 5.18 This requirement – and it is worth reiterating once again that it understates the true scale – is set against a backdrop of leading training providers in the nuclear sector being at, or very close to, full capacity. Clearly the resolution of this issue extends beyond the scope of the Skills Plan, but it does emphasise the importance of key partners – namely the employers in the nuclear sector, the training providers and the LEP – engaging in a dialogue about how the requirements will be met. This is reflected in action B3b within the ‘Building Skills in Education’ theme in Chapter Two. Future Skills Demand 5.19 Current projections of demand for different skills levels in Cumbria, like the employment projections, do not factor in any of the forthcoming transformational developments. Nonetheless, they show that there will be an increase in demand for labour across all skills levels, with the largest increase being for people qualified to Level 4 or above. Projected Demand for Skills Levels: 2011 – 2021 Cumbria Additional No. Level 4+ +5.9% 5,384 Level 3 +2.2% 1,053 Level 2 +2.3% 933 Below Level 2 +1.0% 311 Other qualifications +1.8% 257 No qualifications +0.5% 68 Source: Experian Skills Gaps 5.20 A skills gap occurs where employees are not fully proficient in their roles. The Cumbria Business Survey 2013 found that 14% of employers in the county had a skills gap, which is just below the national average of 16% reported through the 2013 UK Employer Skills Survey (UKESS). As shown in the following chart, skills gaps in Cumbria appear to be most prevalent in skilled trades occupations and amongst managers, directors and senior officials. 30 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Skills gaps by occupation grouping Skilled trades Managers, directors and seniors Elementary admin and service Admin and secretarial Unclassified Sales and customer service Assoc. prof. and tech. Caring, leisure and other service Process, plant and machine ops. Professional 0% Source: Cumbria Business Survey 5% 10% 15% 20% % of employers with skills gaps 5.21 The most frequently cited skills gaps were in IT – covering both basic and advanced skills – and sector specialist technical and practical skills. Employers in wholesale and retail, accommodation and food services, and the visitor economy, were the most likely to report skills gaps. Skills gaps in the other two priority sectors in Cumbria – specialist manufacturing and energy and nuclear – were rare by comparison. Employers Providing Training 5.22 The Cumbria Business Survey 2013 shows that in the 12 months prior to the survey, just over half of the employers (53%) had provided training for some or all of their staff. This is some way below the national figure of 66% that was reported through the UKESS. However, the UKESS presents a slightly more positive picture for Cumbria and gives a figure of 60%, but this still places Cumbria 39th out of all 39 LEPs in England, i.e. it has the lowest proportion of its employers providing training. Given what is known about the likely increase in demand for skilled labour in the county, and setting this against the falling population projections, the potential severity of this situation continuing is clear. 5.23 As shown below, the most common type of training provided was a combination of on and off the job training (25% in the Cumbria Business Survey and 32% in the UKESS). Training Provided by Businesses in Cumbria % providing Type of training training No training 46% Any training 53% Off the job training only 12% On the job training only 16% Both on and off the job training 25% Source: Cumbria Business Survey 2013 31 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 5.24 Just under half of the employers who said in the Cumbria Business Survey that they had not provided training for their staff said that there was ‘no particular reason’, while a third said that all of their staff are fully proficient (see below). Where barriers to training were identified, cost/funding was the most prevalent. Supply side barriers, such as the desired training being unavailable or concerns over the quality of training, were very rare. Barriers to Training (businesses not providing training) % responses No reason or not needed No particular reason 48% All our staff are fully proficient / no need for training 32% We are a very small business or a sole trader 6% Internal barriers No money available for training 5% Employees are too busy to undertake training and development 1% Lack of time generally 2% Managers have lacked the time to organise training 1% Employees are too busy to give training 1% Training is not considered to be a priority for the establishment 1% Supply side barriers External courses are too expensive 2% Courses interested in are not available locally 2% No training available in relevant subject area 1% Quality of the courses or providers locally is not satisfactory 1% Difficult to get information about the courses available locally Source: Cumbria Business Survey 2013 Note: Does not sum to 100% as employers were able to select multiple responses. 1% 5.25 There is significant variation by sector in terms of the likelihood of employers providing training for their staff in Cumbria. Employers in the public services, health and education sectors were the most likely to have provided training in the 12 months prior to the Cumbria Business Survey (to some extent reflecting the heavily regulated nature of these sectors). It is notable that employers in the wholesale and retail sectors, and those in accommodation and food services, are around the average for Cumbria as a whole in terms of the likelihood of them providing training, yet these employers are significantly more likely to say they have skills gaps. Each of these sectors is therefore cited under the ‘Raising Demand and Improving Skills’ theme where workforce development related actions are proposed. 32 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Employers Providing Training by Sector % of employers Public services 94% Health services 91% Education 82% Arts & recreation 79% Financial 71% Wholesale & Retail 58% Professional, Science and Technical Services 56% Cumbria average 53% Accommodation and Food Services 53% Business services 52% Manufacturing 50% Transport and Communications 50% Other 48% Construction 46% Primary (excluding Manufacturing and Construction) 34% Source: Cumbria Business Survey 2013 Skills Shortage Vacancies 5.26 A skills shortage vacancy is a job vacancy which proves difficult to fill because the employer is unable to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience. The 2013 UKESS suggests that whilst the same proportion (4%) of employers in Cumbria and nationally had one or more skills shortage vacancy at the time of the survey, the density of skills shortage vacancies was greater in Cumbria than across England as a whole. In other words, a higher proportion of unfilled vacancies in Cumbria exist because applicants lack the necessary skills than is the case nationally (see the table on the following page). 5.27 This further emphasises the need to consider measures which will stimulate workforce development activity in Cumbria, although it also has links to two much wider issues, which whilst important to the context within which this Skills Plan will be delivered, require a response that extends beyond its remit: The difficulties that Cumbria faces in attracting and retaining skilled labour (reflected in part in its falling working age population); and The distortion of the market for certain skilled occupations by the nuclear industry, which is able to offer higher salaries and more attractive benefits packages than most, if not all, of the other sectors in the county. 33 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Skills Shortage Vacancies: 2013 Cumbria England Employers with a skills shortage vacancy as a percentage of all employers 4% 4% Employers with a skills shortage vacancy as a percentage of all employers with a vacancy 32% 28% Skills shortage vacancies as a percentage of all vacancies 27% 22% Source: UKESS 2013 5.28 Two thirds of skills shortage vacancies in Cumbria reported through the 2013 UKESS were in professional (39% of all skills shortage vacancies) and caring, leisure and other service occupations (27%), which in each case was significantly higher than the equivalent figure nationally. Conversely, skills shortage vacancies in Cumbria were notably less prevalent in sales and customer service, and associate professional occupations. Emerging Skills Needs 5.29 Two key studies14 have been undertaken in Cumbria which have looked at skills issues and emerging skills needs across a range of sectors, including those which are considered to be of significant importance to the county’s economy. Drawing on both national and local sources, these studies provide important information (albeit information that tends to be at quite a high level) about the skills challenges that employers are facing now, and will face in the future. This information has been summarised by sector in the table that follows. Common themes across sectors include leadership and management, customer handling skills and core or transversal’ skills15 such as team working. “Skills Scoping for Cumbria” (CRED, 2013) and “ESF ‘Skills for the Workforce’ in Cumbria: Skills Scoping (2)” (CRED, 2014) 15 Skills that bring together different competencies and cross boundaries between different knowledge domains. 14 34 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Summary of Emerging Skills Needs by Sector - Increase in demand for STEM skills at Levels 4 and 5 (including a shortage of STEM graduates and post-graduates) Advanced Manufacturing (including Food and Drink Manufacturing) - A broader spread of ‘soft skills’ across all levels within the workforce - Professionals and senior managers with skills and experience required to lead and manage product market strategies - Food scientists, nutritionists, technologists and engineers - Multi-skilling: an understanding of different technology platforms and their impact on content development and digital work flow - Multiplatform skills: creative and technical skills to produce content for distribution across all potential platforms Creative and Cultural - Management, leadership, business and entrepreneurial skills - Intellectual property and monetisation of multiplatform content - Broadcast engineering - Sales and marketing - Leadership and management - Business planning, finance, sales and marketing - Woodland management - Health and safety - Contract negotiation - Nutrient planning and application - Knowledge of new varieties of feedstocks Land Based - Crop management - Pesticide application - Water management - Woodland planning and sustainable forestry - New species knowledge - Carbon footprinting - ICT (including use of GPS systems and bespoke applications) - Risk management (e.g. understanding business and environmental risks associated with environmental schemes. - Teamwork, communication and interpersonal skills - Organising, planning and problem solving skills Logistics - Job specific skills - Management and leadership - Literacy, numeracy and IT skills - Customer handling skills - Project and programme management - Construction project management and supervisors - Steel fixing Nuclear Energy - High integrity welding - Safety case authorship - Research and development - Apprenticeships and higher level apprenticeships. 35 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Summary of Emerging Skills Needs by Sector - Transferable management skills for managers and senior officials - Job-specific skills for sales and customer service - Job-specific technical skills for elementary staff, skilled trades and process, plant and machine operatives Retail - Digital skills - Oral communication - Literacy and numeracy - Customer handling skills - Organisation and team working skills - Customer handling skills - Oral communication Tourism/Visitor Economy - Knowledge of legislation, insurance, employment law and understanding public rights of way - Technological skills, e.g. web design, customer interaction and analysing market trends - Leadership and management (including change management, High Performance Working and multi-channel opportunities) Wholesale - e-commerce and m-commerce development - Customer service skills - Problem solving Source: Centre for Regional Economic Development (2013 and 2014) 36 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 6 SUPPLY OF SKILLS AND LEARNING Skills of the Working Age Population16 6.1 Cumbria has a slightly lower proportion of working age residents with higher level skills (Level 4+) than is the case nationally (note that over the next 10 years, it is at Level 4+ that the largest increases in demand are expected). To be in line with England as a whole, a further 12,000 Cumbrian residents would require a qualification at Level 4 or above. In contrast, skills at Levels 1 to 3 and Apprenticeships are slightly over-represented in Cumbria compared with the national average. % working age population Skills profile 2011: Highest level of qualification 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cumbria England Source: Census 2011 6.2 The Cumbrian skills profile varies considerably at district level, with working age residents qualified to Level 4 most prevalent (in proportionate terms) in South Lakeland and Eden, and least prevalent in Barrow and Copeland. 16 2011 Census data is used here as the LEP considers it to be more reliable than more recent data from the Annual Population Survey. 37 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 % working age population Working age residents with Level 4+ qualifications 2011 40% 35% 30% 30% 29% 26% 24% 24% 23% 20% 21% 10% 0% Source: Census 2011 6.3 Not surprisingly, the profile is largely reversed when the proportion of the working age population with no qualifications is presented. As shown below, four of the six districts are above both the LEP area and England average in this regard, with the highest proportions in Copeland and Allerdale. % working age population Working age residents with no qualifications 2011 20% 18% 15% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 11% 10% 5% 0% Source: Census 2011 GCSE Performance 6.4 In 2010/11, GCSE attainment (defined here as pupils achieving five or more A*-C grades, including maths and English) across Cumbria as a whole dipped below the England average, since when the gap has widened slightly year on year. Note that the issue is not worsening performance in Cumbria, but rather improving performance nationally that has not been matched at the local level. Based on 2012/13 statistics, Cumbria ranks 38 th out of the 39 LEPs on this measure. 38 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 GCSE Attainment: % pupils achieving 5+ A*-C GCSEs including English and maths 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Cumbria 56% 57% 56% 57% England 55% 58% 59% 61% Source: Department for Education A Level Performance 6.5 Cumbria performs relatively well at A Level compared with the national average. Achievement at A Level is awarded a points score depending on grade 17, and in 2012/13, the average pupil points score in Cumbria was 734 compared with 706 nationally. In each of the preceding three years, a broadly equivalent gap was also evident. A Level Attainment: Average Pupil Points Score 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Cumbria 755 761 754 734 England 727 728 714 706 Source: Department for Education. Note: Average includes state funded schools only. 6.6 Cumbria has a similar proportion of high achieving pupils as is the case nationally. ‘High achievement’ in this context is classed as pupils with three A*-A grade A Levels and pupils with grades AAB or better in subjects considered to be facilitating subjects (namely biology, chemistry, maths, further maths, geography, English literature and modern and classical languages). A Level Attainment: 2012/13 % pupils achieving three A*-A grade A Levels % pupils achieving grades AAB or better at A Level, of which at least two are in facilitating subjects Cumbria England 9% 10% 12% 11% Source: Department for Education Further Education and Training 6.7 The FE college offer in Cumbria includes provision from Lakes College West Cumbria, Carlisle College, Kendal College and Furness College. The colleges perform well, with good or outstanding Ofsted ratings and higher than average levels of employer satisfaction and learner employment rates. 17 The total number of points achieved by A level students is based on the points assigned to A level and AS results of students who have been entered for at least one A level qualification. The average is obtained by dividing the total points by total number of students. The points at A Level: A* = 300 points, decreasing by 30 points for each grade from A to E. AS Levels are worth half the points score of an A Level. 39 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 6.8 There are a further two FE colleges headquartered outside of Cumbria but providing training in the area (Manchester College and Newton Rigg College). There are also a number of other training providers, the largest of which, in terms of volume of delivery, include Cumbria County Council, Crossco, Age UK and System Group. 6.9 In 2012/13, and using data from the Skills Funding Agency, there were over 58,800 starts on training provision in Cumbria. The number of starts in Cumbria has risen in recent years, with an increase of more than a third observed between 2008/09 and 2012/13. Key points to note on this topic include: The majority of provision in 2012/13 was accounted for by education and training (79%), with the remainder accounted for by adult safeguarded learning (20%) and workplace learning (1%). Just over a third of the provision was below Level 2 (35%) and a similar proportion (31%) was classified as ‘other’. Of the remainder, the majority was at Levels 2 and 3. Less than 1% was at Level 4+. The most common subject area in Cumbria in 2012/13 was preparation for life and work (19,400 starts, 33% of the total), followed by creative and cultural (8,300, 14%), other services (5,100, 9%), health and care (4,100, 7%) and IT (3,600, 6%). Together with the 5,800 starts classified as ‘N/A’ or ‘unknown’, these accounted for four fifths of the total in 2012/13. Training starts by subject area: top 5 by volume 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Preparation for Life & Work Creative & culture Other services Health & care IT Source: Skills Funding Agency Apprenticeships 6.10 Over recent years there has been a steady increase in Apprenticeship provision in Cumbria, with the number of starts almost doubling between 2008/09 and 2012/13 (an increase of 2,700 starts, equivalent to an 87% rise). Whilst encouraging, this is smaller than the 120% increase observed across England as a whole over the same period. 40 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 6.11 In 2012/13 there were over 5,700 starts on an Apprenticeship in Cumbria. Within this: The vast majority of starts were accounted for by intermediate level Apprenticeships (53%) and advanced Apprenticeships (45%), with only a small number of Higher Apprenticeships (1%). The most common Apprenticeship frameworks were in health and social care, business and administration, engineering and manufacture (craft and technician), customer service and hospitality and catering, together accounting for 40% of starts (see the following table). Apprenticeship Starts by Framework*18 No. % Health & Social Care – Advanced 500 9% Health & Social Care – level not specified 470 8% Business & Admin – Intermediate 300 5% Engineering & Manufacture (Craft & Technician) 290 5% Business & Administration – Advanced 270 5% Customer Service – Intermediate 260 5% Hospitality & Catering – Intermediate 230 4% Source: Skills Funding Agency * Table shows all sectors accounting for 4% or more starts. Those with less than 4% are not shown. The highest number of starts was in Carlisle and the lowest in Eden (see the chart on the following page). When the size of the working age population in each district is factored in, the highest concentration of Apprenticeships was in Barrow, followed by Carlisle, while the lowest was in Copeland. 18 The table shows Apprenticeship starts by individual framework. Several frameworks are available under subject areas, for example multiple frameworks in engineering. Aggregation does not however appear to impact on the relative scale of starts under different subjects. It should also be noted in analysing the figures that some frameworks are not sector specific, for example business and administration Apprentices could be employed in a variety of sectors. 41 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Apprenticeship starts by local authority 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Carlisle South Lakeland Allerdale Barrow Copeland Eden Source: Skills Funding Agency Higher Education 6.12 The University of Cumbria is the principal higher education institution in the Cumbria LEP area. The university has academic strengths in education, healthcare, sports, visual and performing arts, humanities, social science, law and criminology, science, outdoors, forestry and land studies. The university’s provision is supplemented by the University of Manchester and UCLAN’s presence along the West Coast: University of Manchester: the university's Dalton Nuclear Institute offers opportunities for research in radiation science and nuclear engineering; UCLAN: The UCLAN West Lakes Campus offers a range of public policy focused courses and specialist nuclear sector focused provision. 6.13 In 2012/13, there were nearly 9,600 students enrolled at the University of Cumbria. As shown below, the university has a higher proportion of undergraduates than UK universities as a whole. It also has a higher proportion of students domiciled in the UK. University of Cumbria Student Profile: 2012/13 Mode of study Domicile Post graduate Under graduate United Kingdom Other European Union NonEuropeanUnion University of Cumbria 17% 83% 98% 2% 1% Total UK 23% 77% 82% 5% 13% Source: HESA 6.14 The FE colleges in Cumbria also offer HE programmes from Higher National Certificates and Higher National Diplomas to Degrees and full Masters level qualifications. The range of subjects that the FE colleges offer in HE includes engineering, science, computing, health and social care, business, construction, sports, arts and teacher training. Combined student numbers are in excess of 1,210 (full and part-time) across all four colleges. 42 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Employers’ Views on Work Readiness 6.15 In Cumbria, as in the rest of England, young people’s preparedness for work increases with the time spent in education. The proportion of employers in Cumbria who rate young people at each point of leaving education, from school leaving age up to higher education, as very well or well prepared for work is similar to the national picture. Cumbria also performs well against other LEPs, particularly on the preparedness of graduates (see below). Employers rating young people as very well or well prepared for work Cumbria England Cumbria LEP ranking 16 year old school leavers 60% 59% 18 out of 39 17-18 year olds recruited to first job from school 67% 66% 19 out of 39 17-18 year olds recruited to first job from FE college University or higher education leavers recruited to first job from university Source: UKESS 2013 76% 74% 14 out of 39 89% 83% 4 out of 39 6.16 This is not to suggest that employability and work readiness should not feature as priorities in the Skills Plan. Nor does it suggest that the LEP and its partners should be contented with the current situation or ignore the frequent anecdotal reports from employers that young people’s work readiness should be better. But it does serve to demonstrate that the baseline position in Cumbria is reasonably good and that the required actions should be more about building on good practice than fundamental overhauls of provision. 43 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 7 MEASURES 7.1 The Cumbria Skills Plan includes eight measures19. These are all areas in which progress is needed to maximise the opportunities presented by the forthcoming programme of major capital investments in the county and to tackle important skills issues more widely. With one exception, they can also all be tracked through publicly available data sources and do not introduce the need for additional programmes of research or evaluation. 7.2 The targets are deliberately relative rather than absolute. None of them proposes, for example, a specific percentage point increase in educational attainment, or a specific percentage point reduction in skills shortage vacancies. This is for two reasons: To set absolute targets that strike the right balance between realism, achievability and ambition requires a detailed and extensive analytical exercise in its own right. Without such an exercise, absolute targets would lack credibility and could become tokenistic; and The myriad of external influences (aside from the delivery of the Skills Plan) that could affect the performance against some or all of the measures could quickly render absolute measures out of date or inapplicable. Relative measures, to some extent at least, take account of external factors that affect not only Cumbria but the other 38 LEP areas as well. 7.3 The tables that follow show Cumbria’s current position against each measure relative to other English LEPs and the national average. An improvement target has also been proposed against each measure, for example to close the gap with the national average or to move up to be amongst the top performing LEPs nationally. 19 Sustained Destinations data will also be available as part of schools performance tables from January 2015 with information for post 16 providers to follow from 2017. Once data is available, it is recommended that an additional measure is added with a baseline position to be captured by the LEP as the basis for ongoing monitoring. 44 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Measure 1: Improved GCSE attainment in maths and English Data source: DfE 2012/13 Next data release: March 2015 A*-C English & maths GCSEs Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Buckinghamshire 72% 1 Thames Valley Berkshire Top 5 average 67% - 67% 2 England average 62% - Hertfordshire 67% 3 Tees Valley 57% 37 York, N Yorks. & East Riding 66% 4 Cumbria 57% 38 London 66% 5 New Anglia 56% 39 Target by 2018: Exceed the England average. Measure 2: Reduction in skills shortages Data source: UK Employer Skills Survey 2013. Next data release: National data will be released in late 2015 and local level data in early 2016. Employers with one or more skills shortage vacancies Top performers Value Cumbria, peer group & averages LEP Rank Bucks. Thames Valley 2.7% 1 Humber 2.7% Worcestershire Value LEP Rank Top 5 average 2.8% - 2 Stoke-on-Trent & Staffs. 3.4% 19 2.8% 3 Cumbria 3.7% 20 Sheffield City Region 2.8% 4 New Anglia 3.7% 21 York and North Yorkshire 2.8% 5 England average 4.1% - Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the top 5 average. Skills shortage vacancy density (% of vacancies that are hard to fill due to skills shortages) Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Swindon and Wiltshire 13% 1 Top 5 average 15% - North Eastern 14% 2 England average 22% - Heart of the South West 14% 3 Thames Valley Berks. 26% 29 Leeds City Region 17% 4 Cumbria 27% 30 Sheffield City Region 17% 5 South East Midlands 28% 31 Target by 2018: Exceed the England average. 45 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Measure 3: Reduction in skills gaps Data source: UK Employer Skills Survey 2013. Next data release: National data will be released in late 2015 and local level data in early 2016. Establishments that have skills gaps Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Northamptonshire 11.1% 1 Top 5 average 12.1% - Swindon & Wiltshire 11.2% 2 England average 15.0% Greater Lincolnshire 12.3% 3 Enterprise M3 16.1% 25 16.2% 26 16.2% 27 Leicester & Leics. 12.5% 4 Cumbria Black Country 12.8% 5 Dorset Target by 2018: Exceed the England average. Employees not fully proficient (% of all employees) Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Northamptonshire 2.9% 1 Top 5 average 3.4% - Swindon & Wiltshire 3.3% 2 Gt. Birmingham & Solihull 4.2% 14 Greater Lincolnshire 3.5% 3 Cumbria 4.3% 15 Sheffield City Region 3.5% 4 York & North Yorkshire 4.4% 16 Stoke-on-Trent & Staffs. 3.7% 5 England average 5.1% - Target by 2018: Exceed the top 5 average. 46 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Measure 4: Improved employer perceptions of work readiness Data source: UK Employer Skills Survey 2013. Next data release: National data will be released in late 2015 and local level data in early 2016. Preparedness for work of 16 year old school leavers (% employers stating ‘very well prepared’ or ‘well prepared’) Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank 71.8% 1 Top 5 average 69.5% - 71.8% 2 Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough 60.1% 17 Heart of the South West 69.7% 3 Cumbria 59.9% 18 The Marches 68.1% 4 North Eastern 59.4% 19 Sheffield City Region 67.2% 5 England average 58.9% - Dorset West of England Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the top 5 average. Preparedness for work of 17-18 year old school leavers (% employers stating ‘very well prepared’ or ‘well prepared’) Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank The Marches 76.0% 1 Top 5 average 73.6% - Gloucestershire 75.4% Sheffield City Region 2 New Anglia 67.0% 18 73.1% 3 Cumbria 66.9% 19 Dorset 72.7% 4 Enterprise M3 66.3% 20 Hertfordshire 72.4% 5 England average 66.3% - Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the top 5 average. Preparedness for work of 17-18 year old FE college leavers (% employers stating ‘very well prepared’ or ‘well prepared’) Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Tees Valley 81.3% 1 Top 5 average 80.5% - West of England 80.7% Heart of the South West 2 York and North Yorkshire 76.3% 13 80.5% 3 Cumbria 76.1% 14 Sheffield City Region 80.5% 4 Enterprise M3 75.4% 15 Worcestershire 79.3% 5 England 74.0% - Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the top 5 average. 47 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Measure 5: Reduction in youth unemployment (18-24) Data source: Claimant Count Oct 2014. Next data release: Dec 2014. Unemployment rate: 18 to 24 year olds Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Oxfordshire 0.9% 1 Enterprise M3 1.2% 2 Top 5 average 1.4% - England 3.4% - Thames Valley Berkshire 1.5% 3 London 3.4% 27 Buckinghamshire Thames Valley 1.7% 4 Cumbria 3.5% 28 Dorset 1.8% 5 D2N2 3.8% 29 Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the top 5 average. Measure 6: Increase in the number of apprentices in Cumbria Source: Data Service. Next data release: October 2014. Apprenticeship Starts Cumbria Starts England 2008/09 2012/13 Change (%) Change (%) 3,130 5,730 83% 113% Target by 2018: Exceed the England average in terms of the relative growth in apprentice numbers. Measure 7: Increase in higher level skills Data source: Annual Population Survey Jan 2013-Dec 2013. Next data release for annual statistics: Jun 2015. Working age population with higher level skills (Level 4+) Top performers Value Cumbria, peer group & averages LEP Rank Value LEP Rank London 49% 1 Top 5 average 47% - Oxfordshire 46% 2 England average 35% - Bucks. Thames Valley Thames Valley Berkshire Enterprise M3 44% 3 Northamptonshire 31% 24 43% 4 Cumbria 30% 25 42% 5 South East 30% 26 Target by 2018: Halve the gap with the England average. 48 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 Measure 8: More employers providing training Data source: UK Employer Skills Survey 2013. Next data release: National data will be released in late 2015 and local level data in early 2016. Employers providing on and off the job training for their staff Top performers Value Cumbria, peer group & averages LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Top 5 average 40.0% - 2 England average 34.7% - 40.4% 3 York & North Yorkshire 32.6% 37 Solent 38.2% 4 Black Country 32.5% 38 Liverpool City Region 38.1% 5 Cumbria 32.1% 39 Thames Valley Berkshire 43.1% 1 Swindon & Wiltshire 41.9% Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Target by 2018: Exceed the England average. Employers providing any training for their staff Top performers Cumbria, peer group & averages Value LEP Rank Value LEP Rank Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough 72.6% 1 Top 5 average 70.8% - Thames Valley Berkshire 71.6% 2 England average 65.7% - Heart of the South West 70.4% 3 Bucks. Thames Valley 62.5% 37 West of England 70.4% 4 Black Country 62.1% 38 Greater Manchester 69.8% 5 Cumbria 60.3% 39 Target by 2018: Exceed the England average. 49 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 APPENDIX A: CONSULTEES Organisation Organisation A4e Iggesund Age UK Ingeus Allerdale Borough Council Innovia AMEC Inspira BAE Systems Kendal College Barrow Borough Council Lake District National Park Britain’s Energy Coast Lakes College West Cumbria Britain’s Energy Coast Business Cluster Lancaster University Caldew School Millom School Carlisle City Council Morgan Sindall Carlisle College National Skills Academy – Nuclear Center Parcs Newton Rigg College Centre for Leadership Performance NHS Cumbria Clinical Commissioning Group CN Media Pirelli Cogent Sellafield Copeland Borough Council Skills Funding Agency Cumbria Chamber of Commerce South Lakeland District Council Cumbria County Council St Benedicts School Cumbria Digital and Creative Rural Growth Network Stobart Group Cumbria LEP Tata Cumbria Tourism Training 2000 Department for Work and Pensions Ulverston Victoria High School Eden District Council United Biscuits Energus University of Central Lancashire Engineering Employers’ Federation University of Cumbria English Lakes University of Manchester – Dalton Cumbria Federation of Small Businesses Worker’s Educational Association Furness College Yanwath Primary School Gen2 50 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 APPENDIX B: CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS Introduction: National Skills Policy The skills system is England is in reform. At the heart of the changes are the principles of employer ownership and enterprise, ensuring funding follows learners, and encouraging colleges to be social enterprises rather than delivery arms of Government. The framework for the reforms is provided by Rigour and Responsiveness in Skills (2013) – the Government’s current skills strategy – which identified six main areas where action is needed to create a system which ensures that provision responds to both the individual and the employer. These areas are summarised below and some of them are subsequently revisited in the later parts of this appendix. The full strategy is available here. i. Raising standards: the strategy announced three approaches to raising standards. The first is the introduction of a new FE Guild (since renamed the Education and Training Foundation) and ‘Chartered Status’, designed to become internationally recognised marks of quality for learners and employers. The second is a faster and more robust intervention regime that aims to protect learners while tackling poor provision. The third will give individuals and employers more information on the quality of provision and more power to choose training, thus sharpening the incentives for colleges and providers to achieve higher standards. ii. Reforming Apprenticeships: in response to the recommendations made in the Richard Review, significant reforms of Apprenticeships are taking place. These include the introduction of an overall assessment to demonstrate competency, increased employer involvement in setting standards, and a greater focus on the achievement of GCSE English and maths at grade C and above. Underpinning this, and a theme that runs through the strategy, is enabling employers to be effective purchasers and owners of training and ensuring that employers and individuals have access to the right information and data to make informed decisions. To support this transformation, eight Trailblazers have been established. These are groups of employers working together to design new Apprenticeship standards for occupations in their sectors, moving quickly to develop examples of the new system working in practice. Trailblazer employers have the opportunity to lead the development of new Apprenticeship standards and the high level assessment approaches that sit alongside them. Once agreed, the standards developed by Trailblazers will become the Apprenticeship standard for that occupation and will move through the process to delivery. iii. Creating Traineeships: the introduction of the Traineeship programme is intended to provide a combination of a focused period of work preparation, a high quality work placement and training in English and maths. Employers have been given a line of sight over the design and delivery of Traineeships, the intention being that this will result in a programme that provides the right skills for the workplace. The rationale supporting the introduction of Traineeships includes evidence which shows that young people who spend more than 12 months out of work in their late teens and early 20s are significantly more likely to experience greater unemployment at a later age. 51 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 iv. Meaningful qualifications: the skills strategy (and subsequent publications such as the 2013-2016 Skills Funding Statement and the Vocational Qualifications Reform Plan) places strong emphasis on only providing public funding for qualifications that are recognised by employers, have a clear purpose and have appropriate content. In August 2013 the Skills Funding Agency completed a robust review of adult vocational qualifications and stronger rules are now being applied around the qualifications that enter and remain in scope for public funding. The approval for funding new qualifications will only occur when the process is completed and, importantly, a real demand for the qualification has been shown. Qualifications will be removed from public funding where there is little or no demand or where the qualifications cannot be shown to be responding to a clear business need. v. Funding improving responsiveness: the strategy makes clear that the government does not intend to pay for poor or irrelevant provision but rather will concentrate on where it can add most value. Approaches such as loans for those aged 24 or over, and direct employer funding through the Employer Ownership Pilot, are designed to provide much sharper incentives for colleges and training providers to respond to what students want to study. vi. Better information and data: FE and skills data is being made available in open access formats and it is becoming easier to find data through data.gov.uk (in early 2014, experimental data was published about earnings at LEP and sector subject area level, and data on destinations and progression at provider level is due shortly). The National Careers Service has been charged with better connecting employers, education institutions and local partners (including LEPs), an intended outcome of which is to improve the awareness of young people and their teachers/tutors about local labour markets and career opportunities. Each of these six priorities in the skills strategy will, to varying degrees, influence the implementation of the Cumbria Skills Plan 2014-17. Members of the Employment and Skills Commission will need to be attuned to the developments taking place as a result of the strategy and will need to ensure that the actions being implemented at a local level are as well aligned as possible with the national direction of travel. Some of the topics covered by the strategy are outlined in more detail in the sub-sections that follow. Alongside these, there are of course many other factors that will or could influence the implementation of the Cumbria Skills Plan. In reality, it is impossible to say objectively where this list starts and ends, as it includes everything from macroeconomic conditions and the outcomes of the next general election, to Cumbria’s future Local Growth Fund allocations and the local priorities that the LEP wants it to address. The intention is therefore not to cover everything here, but rather under four headings – Political, Economic, Social and Technological – to highlight some of the most significant factors that could play a part in determining how the plan is taken forward. Political 1. Public spending constraints 2. 24+ Learning Loans 3. Apprenticeships 52 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 4. Traineeships 5. Social welfare reform 7. Careers advice and IAG 8. LEPs 6. Performance measures 1. The context of ongoing public spending constraints has significant implications for the skills system at both local and national levels. Nationally, the FE and skills budget has been cut by 25% since 2011, bringing with it a range of consequences. These include significant reductions in the number and scale of discretionary funds available and a much sharper focus on only providing public funding for those qualifications and programmes that are recognised and valued by employers and meet genuine need. Now more than ever, organisations (including LEPs) that are bidding for, and subsequently receiving, skills funding will be expected to demonstrate clear outcomes and impacts that add value to existing provision. Linked to this, the Government is moving to new outcome focused success measures, covered in more detail below, which alongside conventional success rates, will also include destination, progression and earning changes. 2. 24+ Advanced Learning Loans were introduced in August 2013 for those studying at Level 3 and above. Evaluation evidence presented by Government suggests that these loans have been successful: as at the end of 2013, more than 57,000 potential learners had applied for loans to enable them to gain intermediate and higher-level skills without facing a financial barrier to entry. The Government claims that this is better than had been expected, although the notable exception is that loans are not proving to be the preferred funding route for prospective apprentices nor their employers. In readiness for the reformed Apprenticeships (see below), the Government has therefore taken the decision to remove the requirement for Apprentices aged 24 and over to take out a loan (and those who have already taken out a loan will not be required to repay it). This has the potential to increase Apprenticeship activity amongst the 24+ cohort in Cumbria, as in other parts of the country. 3. Government policy has been supportive of Apprenticeships for a number of years, with successive research and evaluation studies emphasising the economic benefits they offer and the positive feedback they generate amongst employers. That is not to say, however, that they are yet delivering best value. The Richard Review, published in late 2012, calls for only ‘true’ Apprenticeships to be labelled as such, with a focus on high quality training rather than a “myriad of learning experiences which are labelled as Apprenticeships” 20. As covered in the introductory part of this appendix, the Government is therefore implementing a programme of reforms designed to give employers more input into Apprenticeships, to help ensure that they deliver the high quality training that employers need and that they support economic growth. Funding for Apprenticeships is to be routed through employers, with the Government soon to respond to a consultation exercise on the specifics of how this will work. Even so, some commentators have voiced concerns 20 The Richard Review of Apprenticeships. Doug Richard/Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. November 2012. 53 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 that the additional administrative burden (perceived or actual) may deter some employers from recruiting. In response to this, the Government has stated that it will look at options for alternative funding routes for the smallest businesses. 4. Traineeships were launched in autumn 2013, offering a mixture of work experience, lessons in English and maths, CV writing tips and advice on how to prepare for an interview. Traineeships last around six months on average and aim to help those young people who are motivated by work, but whose lack of experience often means they fall short of employer expectations. The introduction of Traineeships was supported by the 2012 CBI annual education and skills survey, which showed that 61% of employers were unsatisfied with the self-management skills of school leavers. The Government has pledged to continue funding and growing Traineeships and from 2014/15 will extend the funding to include 24 year olds, making Traineeships a 16-24 rather than a 16-23 programme. It is expected, therefore, that the number of young people on Traineeships will increase, which should have positive impacts on the issues of employability and work readiness. The Government is also considering how it can incentivise positive outcomes from Traineeships, in particular around jobs and Apprenticeships, so over time progression rates to positive destinations should also improve. 5. The raft of social welfare reforms that have and will continue to be introduced include real term cuts to benefits levels, tougher tests on people’s ability to work, housing benefit restrictions, stronger promotion of work experience and the introduction of universal credit. A generally harsher benefits environment may act as an incentive for some people to take up study – which is certainly the Government’s intention – and this could see increased demand for some courses. However, very low benefit incomes may actually make it harder to study if there are travel costs involved or course/tuition fees to pay up front or as a loan. Linked to this, the Government is also trialling the Work Skills Pilot in five areas. This is aimed at 18-21 year olds (who do not have level 2 maths and/or English) to test how young people on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) can improve their employment and skills outcomes by increasing their English and/or maths skills through a digital, flexible and supportive learning approach. Depending on the outcomes of the pilot, this could be a significant development, both in Cumbria and nationally, aimed at addressing unemployment amongst young people. 6. Qualification success rates have long been recognised as an established performance measure in the skills system. The Government will continue to use this measure to assess where intervention activity is needed and advise Ofsted’s inspection process, but there is growing recognition that success should not be measured by achievement of qualifications alone. A set of outcome focused measures is therefore being developed that will enable learners and employers to make more informed choices about which provider they go to and which qualification they take. The measures will look at the overall impact of adult vocational education on learners, businesses and local communities, with the aim of ensuring that publicly-funded skills provision delivers value for money whilst being as effective as possible at ensuring that individuals develop the skills they need to secure and sustain high quality employment, to progress in work and to fulfil their potential. Three core measures are in development: destination (into further learning or into/within employment), progression (through learning) and earnings changes (following completion of learning). 54 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 The introduction of these measures has the potential to generate increases in provision that lead to economically beneficial outcomes. Conversely, there is also the risk (however slight) of some providers becoming more risk averse in their curriculum offer and of not putting learners onto courses where success against the core measures might be less than certain. 7. Significant changes to careers advice/IAG provision have taken place recently, with many commentators concerned about the volume, quality and impartiality of careers advice in schools. An Ofsted report in late 2013 found that three quarters of schools were not implementing their duty to provide impartial careers advice effectively. The same report also found that guidance for schools on careers advice is not explicit, the National Careers Service is not promoted well enough and there is a lack of employer engagement in schools. This has potentially very significant implications for young people’s study and career choices, their understanding of local industries and employment opportunities, and for achieving a better alignment between the supply of, and demand for, skills. Many LEPs, through their Employment and Skills Boards (or equivalents) have cited careers advice and guidance, and closer ties between schools and industry, as a high priority. For adults, October 2014 will see new contracts put in place for the National Careers Service, with 95% of the budget paid on delivery of one or more of three outcomes for customers: customer satisfaction, career management, and jobs and learning. The remaining 5% of the budget will be paid for outcomes arising from effective partnership working, including delivering the facilitation role between schools and employers – an area in which LEPs have an obvious role to play. 8. Via their European Structural and Investment Fund Strategies and their Strategic Economic Plans, LEPs have identified their local priorities for skills and these have formed part of their dialogue with Government through the Growth Deal process. Providers have freedoms and flexibilities available to them to respond to business skills priorities and to ensure people have the skills they need to take advantage of local opportunities (City Deals have provided an opportunity to test how this can be done effectively and to consider additional flexibilities, where necessary, to address barriers to responsive provision). The Cumbria LEP has established an Employment and Skills Commission and has entered into a dialogue with the DWP and SFA about ESF opt-in arrangements. An observation from the Skills Plan work is that this dialogue could be made more regular and more forward looking to ensure that the ESC/LEP is fully aware of its short and medium term obligations around co-financing and procurement arrangements. The argument can also be made that the ESC/LEP should be more ambitious in future bids to the Local Growth Fund, including the skills capital component. Economic 1. A disparate economy 4. Employer requirements on work readiness 2. Delivery of the SEP and ESIF Strategies 3. Youth and long term unemployment 5. Recruitment difficulties 55 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 1. The Cumbrian economy, reflecting its size, geography and significant variations in population density, differs considerably across the county. Whilst there are clear drivers of economic prosperity at a LEP area level (most notably those identified in the SEP’s ‘four pronged attack’) there are industry specific concentrations and local skills and employment challenges apparent in different parts of the LEP area. This diversity has clear implications for the implementation of the Cumbria Skills Plan. Most notably, whilst there will of course be actions and recommended programmes of work that are linked to the main economic drivers, these, and the other actions in the plan, will require local level interpretation to ensure that they are taken forward in a way that not only meets local need but which is also cognisant of local circumstances, delivery arrangements and partnership working. This will rely heavily upon the buy-in and support of local stakeholders and there will be a job to do, once the plan has been approved by the ESC, to ensure that this buy-in occurs. Members of the ESC will have an important role in generating and maintaining this buy-in. 2. The delivery of Cumbria’s Strategic Economic Plan and its ESIF Strategy are central to the economic development of the county over the next decade. At an operational level, they will also have a considerable influence on the implementation of the Skills Plan, especially as the projects for SFA and DWP opt-in funding take shape and work begins on the capital developments proposed in the SEP. The Skills Plan has been developed with the clear intention of providing links with, and in some regards acting as the operational delivery arm for the skills elements of, the ESIF and the SEP. However, neither the ESIF nor the SEP is in any way static, and going forwards it will therefore be important to ensure that as future rounds of the Local Growth Fund are negotiated and European projects commissioned, the Skills Plan is updated accordingly. It will lose relevance, and stakeholders will not buy into it, if it becomes a standalone or dated document that is not attuned to the latest developments across the county. 3. Overall, unemployment in Cumbria has tended to sit below the national average, while the proportion of the working age population that is economically active has tended to be above average. This is a strength for the county, but there are, nonetheless, local variations. South Lakeland and Eden, for example, have very high employment rates, while in Barrow-in-Furness unemployment is a more significant and persistent issue. A related issue is that Barrow has disproportionately high levels of long term sickness and disability, which together account for a notably higher proportion than in all of the other Cumbrian districts. Youth unemployment in Cumbria reveals a similar picture in that the county-wide average broadly reflects the national position, but beneath this are several differences. Amongst the most important is that between 2009 and 2013, the reduction in youth unemployment in Cumbria was, in proportionate terms, only half the size of the reduction observed nationally. There are also considerable variations at a district level, with youth unemployment in Barrow, Copeland and Allerdale being notably higher than in Carlisle, South Lakeland and Eden. What is more, the gap between these two groups of three districts is widening. Together these two issues – unemployment and youth unemployment – risk creating sections of society who are cut off from job opportunities 56 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 and face severe challenges in reconnecting with the labour market. An improving national economy and reductions in the headline unemployment rate can (wrongly) take the focus away from these groups, who in reality will require considerable support to obtain qualifications, improve their confidence and develop work-relevant skills and attitudes. Yet there still have to be opportunities for these people to access and consideration must therefore be given in the Skills Plan to ‘de-risking’ the employment of this group by businesses, for instance through short and funded placements supported by ESF. 4. Employer desire for work ready employees is pronounced and will have a major impact on securing jobs in a labour market that may be improving but which is still tight. ‘Earning plus learning’ models such as Apprenticeships (which as identified earlier remain a high priority for Government and are being heavily reformed) and placements/ internships are two important components of the solution, both of which feature in the Cumbria Skills Plan. They chime with the context of increasing tuition fees which may heighten student desire to lessen study costs and to command an income as they gain qualifications and experience. Universities are increasingly seeking to extend their market penetration amongst employers by offering a mix of internships, student placements and knowledge transfer projects, all aimed at improving their record of post-graduate employment prospects. Cumbria should also explore the public-private sector partnership working that is taking place in other LEP areas around employability and work readiness. Employer endorsed charters, certificates of work readiness and other similar initiatives are being taken forward in several areas in an attempt to ensure that young people are leaving education with an attitude and understanding that is more heavily based upon employer need and expectation than may have been the case in the past. 5. The county, or more specifically, parts of the county, faces a number of recruitment difficulties. For example, it has consistently proven difficult to fill vacancies (with the right people) in the National Health Service in the west of the county. Anecdotally, it has also been suggested that the energy sector, and in particular the nuclear energy sector, can distort the local recruitment market through the offer of salaries and benefits packages that other sectors are unable to match. A group of large employers with a presence in Cumbria, each of whom has recent experience of recruitment difficulties, has now been formed with the aim of addressing these entrenched issues. It will be important for the ESC to remain abreast of their work and the progress they make, and for this to be reflected in subsequent updates to the plan. It may also be that these employers can generate valuable learning or best practice that is relevant to other LEP areas facing similar issues. Social 1. Population change 2. Personalisation of services (including social care) 4. Cultural influences 5. Rising cost of living 1. 3. Gender imbalances in learning and career choices Cumbria has a population profile that is older than the national average. It also has a smaller than average proportion of its population that is of working age. Relative to national 57 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 trends, population growth over the last decade has been slow and since 2009 the population of Cumbria has actually declined (nationally it has continued to increase steadily). Looking ahead, the working age population of Cumbria is forecast to decline quite significantly, with a 5% reduction forecast in Allerdale and South Lakeland by 2017 and reductions of nearly a fifth in both of these areas and Copeland by 2037. These changes, and in particular the decline in the number of young people in the county, could have significant impacts on the numbers of learners, trainees and recruits available, presenting challenges for skills providers and reinforcing the importance of upskilling the wider workforce. It also brings into focus a myriad of other factors, such as the affordability and mix of housing (covered under ‘Rising cost of living’), graduate retention, connectivity (also covered later) and transport links. Put frankly, the LEP’s drive to create a significant volume of new jobs through the SEP and associated activity must be accompanied by a sufficient supply of people (ideally from within the local area) with the right skills and aptitudes to succeed in those jobs. Current forecasts cast some doubt on whether that will occur without a multi-faceted programme of intervention. 2. Personalisation – expectations are for more tailored and rapidly delivered services, whether buying a product or the operation of public services including health, care and education. This is likely to impact on skills, with businesses already seeking training provision with content tailored to their needs, shorter and more flexible modules, and more delivery done in the workplace. Students too are likely to seek courses that meet their specific needs and which may take less time to complete, factors heightened by rises in tuition fees. Over time this, alongside national levers such as funding regulations, Government priorities and macro economic conditions, will influence how the delivery of the Cumbria Skills Plan is taken forward (be that the 2015-18 edition of the plan or subsequent updates). However it is worth giving particular mention here to social care, especially given the above points on the age demographics of the Cumbrian economy. Both nationally and particularly in those areas with a prevalence of older people, the demands placed on the adult social care sector are going to increase significantly, with many more workers required and role descriptions broadening with the ongoing roll-out of personalisation and personal budgets. For a sector which historically has suffered from recruitment difficulties and disproportionately high rates of turnover, meeting the increase in demand could be a very significant challenge. 3. There are significant learning factors that vary by gender, often persisting despite efforts to rebalance affairs. These include fewer young women studying STEM subjects and going into related careers, a shortage of male primary school teachers and poorer educational attainment by boys in some subjects at GCSE. Whether these differences persist or decrease will affect learner demand and the number of trainees in different disciplines and their abilities. There are also gender based links to leadership and management skills and take up of these. Despite a massive shift in the proportion of women who are working and their career aspirations over recent decades, there remains a pronounced under-representation of women at boardroom level. These issues are worthy of mention here because of the significance of STEM related industries to the Cumbrian economy and the recognised shortage in STEM related skills. Further efforts to stimulate the take-up of study and careers in STEM related subjects amongst under- 58 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 represented groups, including females, should therefore be considered as the plan is developed. 4. Cultural factors including peer pressure, the media, role models and parents have a major influence on career aspirations, attitudes to learning (and working) and the subjects which learners want to study. Recently, cultural factors have been linked to demand for certain subjects (e.g. those relating to media) that are associated with celebrity or popular culture or otherwise seen as desirable, with others (e.g. science and engineering) suffering a decline. Predicting how these factors will change in the future is difficult, but it is clear that they will have a major impact on demand for different courses and careers and that this will affect employers and learning providers alike. Potential responses include promoting role models, information on the modern realities of workplaces in different sectors (for instance to change outdated perceptions of manufacturing and engineering), and IAG that offers good, impartial information on the range of career options and the chances and nature of employment within them. 5. Cost pressures – such as course fees, housing and travel costs are impacting on the disposable incomes available to learners. Higher costs may make the option of living at home whilst studying at a nearby college or university (or in the workplace) more popular. The location of learning could therefore have greater impact on course take-up than in the past, with colleges and universities close to large populations and in central locations with good public transport accessibility and walking/cycling options particularly advantaged. Also on this topic it is worth giving specific mention to housing costs, as Cumbria has a recognised lack of affordable housing in some areas and, in others, a housing mix that is unable to retain and attract staff, expertise and investment. Whilst it is by no means the sole driver, this has intrinsic links with the age profile of the Cumbrian population and the under-representation of young workers. It goes far beyond the remit of the Skills Plan, but equally is an issue that could limit the impact of the plan and subsequent iterations of it in the future. Technological 1. Growing importance of ICT to business 2. Availability of web-based learning 3. Broadband and mobile advances 4. New research and innovation 1. The need for businesses to apply ICT in how they work and secure customers will continue to grow. That includes being able to take advantage of online trading and good use of social media in their marketing. The same factors are important to recruitment, in business, 59 Cumbria Skills Plan 2015 and also for skills providers such as colleges and universities as they seek to attract new students. This is as true of Cumbria as anywhere else, but at the time of writing some barriers exist in Cumbria due to limited (secure) high-speed broadband and mobile phone coverage. This is recognised in the SEP, which makes pledges around investments in virtual connectivity technologies and achieving 100% superfast broadband coverage, but in the short term it must be factored in to the delivery of the Skills Plan. 2. A related point to the above is that the ability to access a huge array of web-based information makes it possible and important for students and employees in key roles to be able to source and digest information for themselves. That has implications in business and for learning models, where self-development and learning will be important alongside more traditional models that are more dependent on expertise imparted through teachers, trainers and lecturers. There is also great potential to use web based information within lessons and courses, and potentially to achieve efficiencies in doing so, once again assuming that the requisite technological infrastructure is in place. It is notable that the Skills Funding Agency is currently exploring how it can put in place appropriate funding mechanisms to better facilitate online learning, focusing on a specific range of qualifications with a view to testing out approaches with awarding organisations and the wider sector. This work will inform further funding decisions for 2015/16 in the context of increasing knowledge about the range, breadth and success of online delivery. 3. Similarly, ICT advances, especially in broadband and mobile devices, offer great potential for more learning at home or on the move. This may provide a route for young people who are disconnected from school or college settings but whom are IT savvy to reengage with learning through a different route. It also offers potential for different learning models, such as ‘flipped classrooms’ where home based learning is complemented by a focus on discussion and practical exercises in the classroom. 4. New research will continue to point to more effective ways of teaching and training, whether that be about the good use of ICT and other new technologies or good practice in teaching practice more generally. In the HEI sector, for example, ICT is transforming teaching and learning through the introduction of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), enabling students to connect, share and collaborate with virtual ‘classmates’ across geographical and cultural boundaries. 60
© Copyright 2024