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Stock Market Indicators:
Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
February 4, 2015
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
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Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
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Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
S&P 500
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
AAII Sentiment
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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S&P 500
Figure 1.
5
5
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
4
4
Ratio
3.26
3.01
Jan 27
Feb 3
2/3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
80
80
Jan 20
Jan 27
Feb 3
Bulls
70
Bulls
49.0
53.1
49.0
Bears
Bears
17.4
16.3
16.3
70
60
60
50
50
2/3
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
45
50
45
Correction Camp
40
40
2/3
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93
Source: Investors Intelligence.
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Page 1 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 2.
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF
3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
2/3
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
yardeni.com
800
600
400
800
600
400
200
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 3.
21600
21600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF
3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
17600
13600
2/3
17600
13600
9600
9600
yardeni.com
5600
1600
5600
1600
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 2 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 4.
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO
OF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
2/3
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
yardeni.com
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
200
16
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 5.
21600
21600
17600
2/3
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO
OF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
13600
17600
13600
9600
9600
5600
5600
yardeni.com
1600
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1600
16
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 3 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Figure 6.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX
LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
20
20
yardeni.com
2/3
0
-20
0
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average
Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 7.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX
LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
20
20
yardeni.com
2/3
0
-20
0
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average
Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 4 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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AAII Sentiment
Figure 8.
100
100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
75
75
1/28
50
50
25
25
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
5
4
4
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
3
3
1/28
2
1
2
1
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
80
Bulls
70
70
Bears
60
60
50
50
1/28
40
40
30
30
20
10
20
Jan 21
Jan 28
Latest Readings
Bulls
Bears
37.1
30.8
44.2
22.4
10
yardeni.com
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.
Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
Page 5 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
Figure 9.
4.5
140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
4.0
120
3.5
1/27
3.0
100
2.5
80
2.0
1.5
60
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
40
Consumer Confidence
Expectations Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 10.
4.5
70
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
4.0
60
3.5
1/27
3.0
50
2.5
2.0
40
1.5
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
30
Consumer Comfort Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Page 6 / February 4, 2015 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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