1. Espiritual

Information | Analytics | Expertise
DICIEMBRE, 2014
PERSPECTIVAS DE LA
INDUSTRIA AUTOMOTRIZ –PERÚ
Lima, Peru
Guido Vildozo, Manager Latin America Light Vehicle Sales
Forecasts, IHS
© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Agenda
• Entorno Económico
• Perspectiva Global de la Industria Automotriz
• Ciclos de plataformas/plataformas globales
• Ventas Regionales
• Ventas Perú
• Conclusión
© 2014 IHS
2
Crecimiento Económico –Mundial
El pesimismo ha incrementado
Annual real GDP growth in %
9.0
2013
2014
2015
Avg 2016-21
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
World average
2014 = 2.7%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
World
United
States
Japan
Eurozone
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Forecast change since third-quarter 2014
World
2014
2015
Avg 16-21
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
United
States
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
Japan
Eurozone
Brazil
Russia
India
China
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.8
-0.5
-0.6
0.6
-2.6
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
Source: IHS Economics
© 2014 IHS
Tasas de Desempleo
Economías BRIC perfilan incremento en desempleo
16
14
October
2014
Percent, 2010-14
Unemployment rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
China
Japan
Russia
United
States
Brazil
Eurozone
Germany
Source: IHS Economics, monthly, in percent, historical actuals and current estimate
© 2014 IHS
Índice Inflacionario
Expectativas inflacionarias han disminuido
16
14
Percent, 2010-14
CPI annual change
12
10
October
2014
8
6
4
2
0
-2
China
India
Japan
Russia
United States
Brazil
Eurozone
Source: IHS Economics, monthly index annual percentage change, historical actual and current estimate
© 2014 IHS
Índices de Manufactura
Estancamiento en China
Purchasing
managers’
indexes
(Index, over
50 indicates
expansion)
Index, over 50 signals expansion
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
2006
2007
2008
2009
United States
2010
Eurozone
2011
2012
China
2013
2014
Japan
Sources: Institute for Supply Management (US), Markit, National Bureau of Statistics (China)
© 2014 IHS
6
World Outlook/ November 2014
Índices de Materias Primas
No solo impacta petróleo
Industrial materials prices
IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2002
2004
2006
All industrial materials
© 2014 IHS
2008
Chemicals
2010
2012
2014
Nonferrous metals
7
World Outlook/ November 2014
Índices de Cambio de Moneda
Devaluaciones pronunciadas
USD/local currency, 2013:1=100
Weekly exchange rate index
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Jan-13
Apr-13
China
© 2014 IHS
Jul-13
India
Oct-13
Brazil
Jan-14
Apr-14
Russia
Jul-14
Oct-14
South Africa
8
Dinámica de precio de petróleo
Débil a corto plazo
• Baja demanda en China
Riesgos
• Producción en NAFTA ha incrementado
• Recuperación de producción en Libia
• Arabia Saudita opta por incrementar producción
• Incremento en exportaciones de Irán
• Aceleración de la economía global
• Tensión geo-politica (Iraq, Irán, Libia, Nigeria,
Venezuela, etc.)
• Costes de producción mas elevados
© 2014 IHS
Precio de Brent/Barril
Caída en demanda fue repentina, incertidumbre en industria
140
US dollars per barrel
120
100
80
Q3 Forecast
New Forecast
60
40
20
0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
Source: IHS Energy, quarterly data
© 2014 IHS
Riesgos macroeconómicos
Riesgo
Síntomas
China se estanca
• Sector bancario colapsa.
• Burbuja inmobiliaria.
• Estimulo fiscal gubernamental.
Eurozona vuelve a
recesión
• Problemas bancarios se intensifican.
• Grecia deja la unión.
• Contagio llega a Italia, Portugal, o Francia.
Shock en precio de
Petróleo
• Conflictos en Medio Oriente o África.
• Incremento repentino.
• Rusia.
Estados Unidos deja
de crecer
• Consumidor se pone conservador.
• Crecimiento salarial se estanca.
• Crisis inmobiliaria retorna.
© 2014 IHS
jun-2005
sep-2005
dic-2005
mar-2006
jun-2006
sep-2006
dic-2006
mar-2007
jun-2007
sep-2007
dic-2007
mar-2008
jun-2008
sep-2008
dic-2008
mar-2009
jun-2009
sep-2009
dic-2009
mar-2010
jun-2010
sep-2010
dic-2010
mar-2011
jun-2011
sep-2011
dic-2011
mar-2012
jun-2012
sep-2012
dic-2012
mar-2013
jun-2013
sep-2013
dic-2013
mar-2014
jun-2014
Light vehicle sales
Millones
Ventas globales a ritmo anualizado
Mercado impulsado por EEUU y China primordialmente
90
85
80
Source: IHS
© 2014 IHS
SAAR
Global
75
70
65
60
SAAR
sin
China
55
50
45
40
© 2014 IHS
12
Ventas regionales a ritmo anualizado
Los BRICs han desacelerado
2.8
Seasonally Adjusted Selling Rates
Indexed 2007=1
2.6
ASEAN
C Europe
E Europe
Gr China
India
Japan Korea
Mid-East/Africa
N America
S America
W Europe
GC
2.4
2.2
Lehman
Collapse
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
AS
2007
Sales Level
IN
SA
1.2
JK
MEA
NA
EE
WE
1.0
0.8
CE
0.6
Jan'14
Jan'13
Jan'12
Jan'11
Jan'10
Jan'09
Jan'08
Jan'07
0.4
Source: IHS Analysis, X12 Seasonal Adjustment
© 2014 IHS
13
Million units
Ventas globales
2013-2014
87.2
+ 0.2
- 0.2
+ 0.4
86.7
- 0.6
+ 0.6
- 0.7
86.2
+ 1.0
85.7
85.7
85.2
+ 1.9
84.7
+3%
84.2
83.7
83.2
83.3
2013
© 2014 IHS
Greater China North America
West Europe
Middle
East/Africa
Japan/Korea
South Asia
Central/East
Europe
South America
2014
14
Ventas globales
Venderemos 200 millones de unidades adicionales!
110
Total sales 2006-13:
Annual sales, in millions
100
577 million vehicles
Total sales 2014-21:
767 million vehicles
90
88.6
85.7
80
70
60
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
50
Source: IHS Automotive Sales Forecasts
© 2014 IHS
15
Ventas globales
China vende mas que todos los mercados en desarrollo
50
40
Mature Markets
China
Others
30
Change 2001-21:
MM down 5%
China up 1,400%
Others up 200%
20
10
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
Source: IHS Automotive, Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ, W Europe
© 2014 IHS
16
Ciclo promedio por Región
Region
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Europe
7.0
7.1
6.0
6.3
6.0
Greater China
8.7
7.7
5.8
7.8
7.1
Japan/Korea
3.8
6.0
5.1
7.1
5.2
North America
5.6
5.2
5.5
5.5
4.9
South America
11.3
3.1
8.4
6.9
5.5
• Integración de plataformas globales a NAFTA, China y USA acelera renovación de producto
• Promedio global cae debajo de los 6 años en coordinación global
• Impacto de la Euro crisis en desarrollo de plataformas Europeas.
© 2014 IHS
© 2014 IHS
17
Program Cadence
6.8
7.0
Multi-Region Platforms
70%
6.1
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Multi Region Share
Weighted Cadence (Years)
“Mega” Plataformas
60%
50%
After 2015, multiregion (global)
platforms approach
70% of volume
40%
30%
0.0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
20%
2000
Global Launch Events
Launch Event Count
2010
2015
2020
Average Platform Volume (Over 50K/Year)
161
160
2005
140
140
110 106 115 113
120
128 125
2020
115
90
100
73
80
2015
60
40
2010
20
0
2010
© 2014 IHS
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
18
Brasil
Ventas por concesionario
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
0
Fiat
Fiat
Chevrolet
Chevrolet
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
Toyota
Toyota
Ford
Ford
Nissan
Nissan
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Citroen
Citroen
Renault
Renault
Peugeot
Peugeot
LCV
200
300
400
500
# dealers
Sales Network
Sales 2013
(LCV)
LCV Sales per
Dealer
Sales 2013 Total
Total Sales per
Dealer
Fiat
592
186,708
315
719,225
1,215
Chevrolet
488
142,993
293
594,944
1,219
Volkswagen
449
142,460
317
583,171
1,299
Toyota
143
42,630
298
175,505
1,227
Ford
493
27,413
56
323,258
656
Nissan
159
25,139
158
88,921
559
Mitsubishi
184
21,376
116
55,781
303
Citroen
160
20,497
128
55,480
347
Renault
252
15,566
62
220,972
877
Peugeot
138
5,752
42
46,463
337
Brand
© 2014 IHS
All light vehicles
100
600
700
Argentina
Ventas por concesionario
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
Toyota
Toyota
Fiat
Fiat
Renault
Renault
Chevrolet
Chevrolet
Peugeot
Peugeot
Citroen
Citroen
Ford
Ford
Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes-Benz
LCV
© 2014 IHS
All light vehicles
20
40
60
80
# dealers
Brand
Sales Network
Sales 2013 (LCV)
LCV Sales per
Dealer
Sales 2013 Total
Total Sales per
Dealer
Volkswagen
80
46,432
580
157,572
1970
Toyota
47
27,400
583
53,708
1143
Fiat
77
25,713
334
103,678
1346
Renault
67
23,659
353
139,151
2077
Chevrolet
66
22,825
346
139,771
2118
Peugeot
76
22,640
298
98,183
1292
Citroen
45
21,386
475
40,626
903
Ford
93
21,338
229
117,611
1265
100
Chile
Ventas por concesionario
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
0
Nissan
Nissan
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Toyota
Toyota
Chevrolet
Chevrolet
Peugeot
Peugeot
Fiat
Fiat
VW
VW
Kia
Kia
Renault
Renault
LCV
© 2014 IHS
All Light Vehicles
20
40
60
# dealers
Sales 2013 (LCV)
LCV Sales per
Dealer
Sales 2013 Total
Total Sales per
Dealer
55
10,549
192
28,858
525
Mitsubishi
64
8,164
128
11,185
175
Toyota
73
8,025
110
26,843
368
Chevrolet
n.a.
6,568
n.a.
57,554
n.a.
Peugeot
52
5,865
113
12,006
231
Fiat
38
4,277
113
6,506
171
VW
30
3,884
129
8,149
272
Kia
53
3,550
67
32,444
612
Renault
56
501
9
4,768
85
Brand
Sales Network
Nissan
80
Mexico
Ventas por concesionario
0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
0
Nissan
Nissan
Toyota
Toyota
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
Ford
Ford
Chevrolet
Chevrolet
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Peugeot
Peugeot
Renault
Renault
Fiat
Fiat
LCV
© 2014 IHS
All light vehicles
50
100
150
# dealers
Brand
Sales Network
Sales 2013
(LCV)
LCV Sales per
Dealer
Sales 2013 Total
Total Sales per
Dealer
Nissan
Toyota
Volkswagen
Ford
Chevrolet
Mitsubishi
Peugeot
Renault
Fiat
156
47
166
136
125
55
31
n.a.
50
68,212
24,204
9,854
7,347
6,965
2,807
2,802
1,828
1,592
437
515
59
54
56
51
90
n.a.
32
263,477
60,740
156,313
85,194
193,072
8,997
6,941
21,187
8,228
1689
1292
942
626
1545
164
224
n.a.
165
200
Perú
Ventas por concesionario
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
Toyota
Toyota
Nissan
Nissan
Hyundai
Hyundai
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Kia
Kia
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
LCV
© 2014 IHS
All Light Vehicles
10
20
30
# dealers
Brand
Sales Network
Sales 2013
(LCV)
LCV Sales per
Dealer
Sales 2013 Total
Total Sales per
Dealer
Toyota
30
16,491
550
38,900
1,297
Nissan
23
3,646
159
11,550
502
Hyundai
14
3,484
249
22,359
1,597
Mitsubishi
37* (incl. Fuso)
2,667 (w/o Fuso)
72
4,042 (w/o Fuso)
109
Kia
16
2,022
126
22,808
1,426
Volkswagen
23
1,840
80
5,719
249
40
Millares
Perú Venta de Vehículos Ligeros
SAAR
250 Miles de Unidades
200
150
100
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
LV Sales (left scale)
© 2014 IHS
24
Perú Ventas Vehículos Ligeros
0.30
Million Units
Peru puede sorprender
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Current Base
© 2014 IHS
25
Perú
Market Share
100%
90%
Percentage
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
Jianghuai
Mazda
Renault/Nissan
© 2014 IHS
2010
2012
Chery
Mitsubishi
Toyota
2014
Ford
Volkswagen
Hyundai
2016
Honda
Suzuki
2018
2020
Fiat
General Motors
Millones
Perú
Bodytype
Units
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
2010
© 2014 IHS
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Perú
Hyundai Motor Company, alimentados por carros pequeños
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
70%
100%
60%
90%
50%
80%
40%
70%
30%
60%
20%
50%
10%
40%
0%
30%
-10%
20%
-20%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Kia
Hyundai
YOY
A
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
© 2014 IHS
4
2015
B
C
D
E
HVAN
Perú
Toyota Motor Corporation, Hilux pierde mercado
100% 100%
90%
80%
80%
60%
70%
60
50
40
40%
30
20%
20
60%
50%
40%
0%
30%
10
-20%
20%
-
-40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lexus
Hino
Daihatsu
Toyota
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
YOY
B
C
D
E
HVAN
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
29
Perú
Renault-Nissan Alliance, Tiida desacelera
25
60% 100%
50% 90%
20
40%
80%
30%
70%
20%
60%
15
10%
10
0%
-10%
5
-20%
-
-30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lada
Renault
Nissan
YOY
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
B
C
D
E
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Series4
Series8
© 2014 IHS
Series6
Series9
Series5
Series10
Series7
Series11
30
Perú
General Motors, Sail y Spark van con tendencia negativa
25
140% 100%
120% 90%
20
100%
80%
80%
70%
60%
60%
15
40%
10
20%
0%
5
-20%
-
-40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Hummer
Cadillac
Daewoo
YOY
Chevrolet
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A
B
C
D
E
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
31
Perú
Suzuki, estable
100% 100%
90%
80%
80%
60%
70%
12
10
8
40%
6
20%
4
60%
50%
40%
0%
30%
2
-20%
20%
-
-40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Suzuki
Maruti-Suzuki
YOY
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A
B
C
D
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
32
Perú
Volkswagen Group, apuesta a gama de pequeños
12
100%
10
80%
8
-
40%
60%
20%
50%
SEAT
Audi
Porsche
40%
30%
-20%
20%
-40%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volkswagen
80%
70%
0%
2
90%
60%
6
4
100%
0%
YOY
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A
B
C
D
E
F
HVAN
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
33
Perú
Mitsubishi Motor Company, L200 sufre en ventas
120% 100%
100% 90%
7
6
80%
5
60%
4
3
80%
70%
60%
40%
50%
20%
40%
2
0%
30%
1
-20%
-
-40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mitsubishi
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A
YOY
B
C
D
HVAN
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
34
Perú
Mazda Motor Corporation, plan agresivo de crecimiento
6
200% 100%
90%
5
150% 80%
70%
4
100% 60%
50%
50% 40%
3
2
30%
1
0%
-
-50%
20%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mazda
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
B
YOY
C
D
3
2
2
1
1
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
35
Perú
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, fortalecerá gama Fiat
4
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chrysler
Fiat
Iveco
Jeep
Dodge
YOY
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A
B
C
D
E
F
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
36
Perú
Honda Motor Company, HR-V será la novedad
100% 100%
90%
80%
80%
60%
70%
6
5
4
40%
3
20%
2
60%
50%
40%
0%
30%
1
-20%
20%
-
-40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Acura
Honda
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
B
YOY
C
D
E
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
37
Perú
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
80% 100%
70% 90%
3
3
60%
2
50%
2
1
1
30%
40%
20%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BMW
60%
50%
0%
Mini
70%
40%
10%
-
80%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E
YOY
D
C
B
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
38
Perú
Daimler AG
70% 100%
90%
60%
80%
50% 70%
3
2
2
40%
1
30%
1
-
40%
30%
10%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mercedes-Benz
50%
20%
0%
Smart
60%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
F
YOY
E
D
C
A
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
2010
2016
© 2014 IHS
2011
2017
2012
2018
2013
2019
2014
2020
2015
39
Mexico Producción
Inversiones se aceleran
(Millions of units)
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
PROD
© 2014 IHS
2014
2016
2018
2020
TOTAL VOLUME
PLATFORMS BEING PRODUCED
NUMBER OF LAUNCHES
VOLUME/PLATFORM
© 2014 IHS
2010
2,258,727
19
0
2011
2,547,270
19
1
2012
2,865,872
19
2
2013
2,926,860
19
2
2014
3,243,398
22
4
2015
3,360,884
21
0
2016
3,562,545
28
7
2017
4,225,453
27
1
2018
4,492,197
31
7
2019
4,802,667
30
2
2020
4,930,505
29
1
118,880
134,067
150,835
154,045
147,427
160,042
127,234
156,498
144,910
160,089
170,017
41
Sumario
• El crecimiento económico global ha desacelerado, precio del crudo
puede generar problemas
• Industria automotriz apuesta a boom en demanda
• China y EEUU empujan a la industria automotriz, pero se espera que
resto del mundo retome crecimiento
• Velocidad en desarrollo de plataformas incrementara y globalizara
• Perú esta a la par con otras naciones de la región en ventas por
concesionario
• Gama de SUVs crecerá y será mas competitiva
• Automotrices apuestan a crecimiento impulsado por producción en
Mexico (incluidas las marcas de lujo).
• Vamos Perú!
© 2014 IHS
42
Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!
Guido Vildozo
Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales
[email protected]
For more information,
please contact
IHS Customer Care
800 447 2273 (IHS CARE)
+44 (0) 1344 328 300
[email protected]
© 2014 IHS
44