2005 - rembio

Biomass energy
perspectives in
Mexico and Central
America
Emilio de los Ríos Ibarra,
Red Mexicana de Bioenergía
edelosrios@prodigy.net.mx
Salvador de Bahia, November 2007
Plan
Bioenergy in Mexico.
Mexico & Central America
Resource use and
Sustainability
Is there a path for Sustainable
Biomass energy?
Biomass energy perspectives,
The case of firewood in
Yucatan
Bioenergy in
Mexico
High potential, marginally used
Promising applications..
Land fill Biogas
power
Forest by products
Energy crops
Efficient stoves
Energy use in
Mexico
7000.0
6000.0
firewood
sugar cane
bagasse
Wind
PETAJOULES
5000.0
Geothermic
4000.0
Hydraulic
Nuclear
3000.0
associated gas
2000.0
non associated
gas
Condensates
1000.0
Crude oil
Coal
0.0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Año
Bioenergy supplies 8% of total primary
energy in México (455 de 5,690 PJ/yr)
Bioenergy
Sources
in Mexico
Agro-industrial
wastes
Agricultural by
4%
products
19%
Manure
3%
energy crops
6%
MSW derived
1%
Natural Forest
38%
Forest waste
2%
Plantation
27%
Total availablility : 3,000-4550 PJ/año
50-80% total energy demand
Global
Warming
POWER GENERATION MITIGATION POTENTIAL 2030
Gt CO2 eq/ yr
CCS + gas, 0.22
CCS + coal, 0.49
Solar PV and
Concentrated Solar
Power, 0.25
Fuel switch and plant
efficiency, 1.07
Geothermal, 0.43
Bio-energy, 1.22
Nuclear, 1.88
Wind, 0.93
Hydro, 0.87
TOTAL 7.4 GtCO2eq/year
Fuente: IPCC, 2007
Biodiesel: Experience
in México
• Waste vegetable oil plant in
Monterrey
• Propalm Plant
• Michoacán state project
Nivel 3
(Jatropha)
• Comisión BioenergéticosChiapas (Jatropha)
Nivel 2
Nivel 1
Biodiesel pilot plant
Planta Grupo Energéticos
Biogas
•
•
•
•
•
Manure management
Land fill gas
MDG and Climate change mittigation
pottential
(CH4 21 times more GWP than el
CO2)
128 of 148 Mexican CDM approved
projects for Mexico are biogás.
Mexico’s Sugar Industry
Sugar is Mexico’s largest agricultural industry
Sugar cane fifth largest cultivated crop, (614 000 ha)
58 sugar mills in 15 states, most obsolete.
Fossil fuel consumption 8.5 liters/ton sugar.
More than 440,000 jobs.
(cane cutters, seasonal field workers, and factory workers)
158,000 cane growers,
Mean surface per grower < 4 ha, produce 300 tons each.
Quensland Australia 6,500 growers with 85 ha.
Mexican sugar cane industry has been in permanent crisis, as
state intervention, aims job creation not labor productivity.
Sugar Cane
FOB mill price $372.00 Mex pesos/ ton =
$34.00 US $/ton (2006)
Sugar cane
Ethanol
Domestic production during the 2004/2005 crop 60 million liters
Domestic demand industrial ethanol 164 million liters
Imports from Guatemala, Salvador
Food or fuel ?
Maize production costs in Mexico
Season
State
Cost/ha
yield
cost/ ton
Cost/ton
ton
PESOS
USCy
OI 05-06
SINALOA
$ 5,592.00
9.15
$
611.15
$
56.48
PV 2005
SINALOA
$ 5,697.00
7
$
813.86
$
75.22
PV 2005
JALISCO
$ 6,738.00
7
$
962.57
$
88.96
PV 2005
E MEX
$ 6,683.00
6.5
$ 1,028.15
$
95.02
PV 2005
JALISCO
$ 5,888.00
5
$ 1,177.60
$
108.84
PV 2005
TAMPS
$ 5,014.50
3
$ 1,671.50
$
154.48
PV2005
YUC
$ 5,461.00
3
$ 1,820.33
$
168.24
OI 05-06
SON
$11,126.50
5.5
$ 2,023.00
$
186.97
PV 2005
VER
$ 4,930.00
2.1
$ 2,347.62
$
216.97
PV 2005
E MEX
$ 5,870.60
2.5
$ 2,348.24
$
217.03
OI 05-06
GRO
$ 8,744.00
3
$ 2,914.67
$
269.38
PV 2005
TAB
$ 4,188.00
1.38
$ 3,034.78
$
280.48
Source:www.siap.sagarpa.gob.mx.viocs
CBOT price $149.6 us cy/ton
380 cents/bushell 15 nov 07
How can maize be
produced at this cost?
season
state
Cost
pesos/ha
PV 2005
VER
$ 4,930.00
2.1
$ 2,347.62
$
216.97
PV 2005
E MEX
$ 5,870.60
2.5
$ 2,348.24
$
217.03
OI 05-06
GRO
$ 8,744.00
3
$ 2,914.67
$
269.38
PV 2005
TAB
$ 4,188.00
1.38
$ 3,034.78
$
280.48
Maize in Mexico and C. America is:
•
•
•
Base of tortillas, the staple product
for most of the population.
Specific varieties are main
ingredient for delicate dishes.
And a commodity.
CBOT price $149.6 us cy / ton
380cents / bushell 15 nov 07
Yield ton/ha
Cost per ton
pesos
Cost per ton
$ us/ton
Ethanol production cost maize feed stock
Feed stock
cost $ us/ l
Total cost
$ US / lt
Energy equiv.
cost
SINALOA
$
0.1354
$
0.3240
$
0.4570
SINALOA
$
0.1803
$
0.3689
$
0.5203
$
0.5472
Gasoline
JALISCO
$
0.2132
$
0.4019
$
0.5667
E MEX
$
0.2277
$
0.4164
$
0.5872
JALISCO
$
0.2608
$
0.4495
$
0.6339
TAMPS
$
0.3702
$
0.5589
$
0.7882
YUC
$
0.4032
$
0.5919
$
0.8347
SON
$
0.4481
$
0.6367
$
0.8980
VER
$
0.5200
$
0.7086
$
0.9994
E MEX
$
0.5201
$
0.7088
$
0.9996
GRO
$
0.6456
$
0.8342
$
1.1765
TAB
$
0.6722
$
0.8608
$
1.2140
Source Compete task 4.4 report
Domestic wood fuel
•
5 millon families, use wood
fuel in Mexico.
•
Efficient wood stoves are a
true alternative
•
Benefit cost Ratio 7 : 1 just
for health benefits.
Bioenergy
&
Conservation
Environmental issues
have transboundary
Effects and need
transboundary actions
Biodiversity conservation
Meso America
5 Mexican states % area
Chiapas
Campeche
Tabasco
Yucatán
Quintana Roo
10%
7%
3%
6%
5%
Belice
3%
Costa Rica
7%
Guatemala
14%
Honduras
15%
Nicaragua
18%
El Salvador
3%
Panama
10%
Total area 768,543 Km2
People & Landscapes
Biodiversity
Meso - America bridge between North and South América.
Second world’s largest reef, many different Landscapes.
Mountains that reach 4,211 m. above sea level.
Rainfall from 500 mm to more than 7,000 mm/year.
Mean annual temperatures from 7,5 to 32,5 0 C.
24,000 vascular plant species,
5,000 (21%) endemic. (Jatropha curcas)
521 mamalian species, 210 (40 %) endémic.
1,193 bird species
Crop center of origin:
Maize, Zea Mays cocoa Theobroma cacao, Beans Phaseolus. Sp. Squashes Cucurbita sp,
Socio-economic
data
Illiteracy
Rate %
Population
>15 yr
thousands
Agricultural
labour %
labour force
Year
2006
2005
2005
Belize
276
N-D
5.3
Costa Rica
4,399
15
3.8
El Salvador
6,991
18.4
18.9
Guatemala
13,018
18.9
28.2
Honduras
7,518
36.3
22.6
Nicaragua
5,594
29
31.9
Panama
3,284
19.3
7.6
Mexico
9,992 *
13.9
7.4
Total
51,072
Population
Source: CEPAL Anuario Estadístico 2006
*INEGI Recuento 2005 ( only 5 states )
Population density:
66.43 hab / sq km
Economic Growth
Millions US $
GDP
2000 (a)
Belice
1
(b)
%change *
831.8
1,085.7
31
Costa Rica
15,946.5
19,470.3
22
El Salvador
13,134.1
14,634.1
11
Guatemala
19,288.9
21,849.1
13
Honduras
6,024.6
7,180.4
19
Nicaragua
3,938.3
4,579.9
16
Panama
11,629.8
14,312.3
23
Mexico
580,791.7
636,161.3
10
Cepal Anuario estadístico 2006
*
( b/a) -1
Exports
NICARAGUA
Example
MAIN EXPORTS
Percentage share of total value of exports
1995
2000
2002
2004
2005
COFEE
23.5
27.1
10.9
17.4
15.1
MEAT
10.8
8.3
12.8
15.2
14.4
SEA FOOD
13.7
18.8
5.6
12.1
7
CATTLE
3.9
3.3
4.9
5.2
SUGAR
4.2
2.9
4
BANANAS
2.8
4.6
PEANUT
2.4
4.6
4.6
4.9
5.2
2.7
53.2
71.5
39.9
57.4 50.9 TOBACCO
TOTAL
CEPAL Anuario Estadístico 2006
Remitances
Migrant worker cash remitances as percentage of :
2004 data
GDP
FDI
ODA
Tourism
Guatemala
10.0%
2145.0%
3052.0%
348.0%
El Salvador
16.1%
655.0%
6620.0%
756.0%
Nicaragua
17.8%
310.0%
127.0%
432.0%
Honduras
15.1%
582.0%
385.0%
286.0%
Costa Rica
1.7%
55.0%
7960.0%
24.0%
Panama
1.8%
49.0%
6435.0%
35.0%
Belize
6.8%
253.0%
1556.0%
58.0%
Mexico
2.5%
100.0%
24888.0%
154.0%
Currently main foreign currency source
FDI = foreign direct investment
ODA = official development aid
GDP = gross domestic product
Source: World Bank 2005
Sustainability
Biodiversity loss
Soil erosion
Source Global soil degradation. (1997). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library.
Retrieved 19:35, November 17, 2007 from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global_soil_degradation.
Energy and Human
development
Source UNDP 2006 Human development report
Traditional fuels
% total energy
Per capita
electricity consumption
GDP per energy unit
2000 PPP US$ / kg oil
Human dev.
Index
Rank
2003
1980
2003
1980 2003
Costa Rica
48
29.6
964.0
1764.0
10.2
9.9
Mexico
53
13.0
955.0
2108.0
5.5
5.6
Panama
58
28.5
930.0
1733.0
7.3
7.6
Belice
96
25.0
370.0
708.0
-
-
El Salvador
101
46.3
336.0
663.0
7.6
6.9
Nicaragua
112
69.3
363.0
492.0
8.7
5.5
Honduras
117
63.6
259.0
694.0
5.0
4.9
Guatemala
118
72.1
245.0
501.0
7.0
6.5
Domestic Fuel Use
Household Cooking fuels in Guatemala
ESMAP- world bank 2005
% households
Urban
Rural
Global
Fuelwood
45.2
95.4
73.6
Kerosene
1.4
8.4
5.4
LPG
78
20.3
45.3
Charcoal
24.6
3.4
12.6
Electricity
4.8
0.8
2.5
Other
3.1
11.5
7.9
Multiple
fuel use
Deforestation
Forest Area
Year
1950
1990
Forest loss
Costa Rica
27,000
14,000
13,000
Guatemala
71,000
42,000
29,000
From 1990 to 2005
Central America lost
52,280 Km 2 more.
Honduras
68,000
46,000
22,000
17 % of 1990 Forests
Nicaragua
70,000
60,000
10,000
Panama
52,000
31,000
21,000
10 % of total area for
Central America.
Total
288,000
193,000
95,000
Source Cifor 1996
Square km
Source: FAO State of the World Forests 2007
Cattle population
1950-1992
Year
Costa Rica
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Total
Source Cifor 1996
1950 1970 1978 1992
0.6
1.5
2
1.7
1
1.5
2.1
2.2
0.9
1.2
1.8
2.1
1.1
2.2
2.8
2.2
0.6
1.2
1.4
1.4
4.2
7.6
10.1 9.6
Million head
Land Use
Cash crop production within a capital intensive
and export oriented sector.
Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Cane, Bananas, Sisal, Rubber, Cotton,
Soybeans, Beef, Cardamom, Oil Palm, Annato, Jatropha ??
Non sustainable forestry to extract:
Chewing gum, Mahogany and other tropical timbers, dyes (palo de tinte),
Barbasco, Xate palm leaves.
According to commodity
“booms”
Consequences: Environmental degradation, poverty, political unrest.
Is bioenergy a new boom?
Is there a path
for Sustainable
Biomass Energy?
FAO’s 9 key Issues, to consider
for bioenergy policy design.
•
Ability of bioenergy to provide energy services for the poor.
•
Implications for agro industrial development and job creation.
•
Health and gender implications of modern bioenergy.
•
Implications for the structure of agriculture.
•
Implications for food security.
•
Implications for government budget.
•
Implications for trade, foreign exchange balances and energy
security
•
Impacts on biodiversity and natural resource management
•
Implications for climate change
Fao (2007) Sustainable Bioenergy a Framework for Decision Makers
How do these
issues apply in a
real context?
Case study:
Wood fuel in Yucatan
Mexico
Yucatan population
2005
• 1, 800, 000 inhabitants
• 36% households, use fire wood
• More than 650,000 firewood users.
Wood fuel
consumption
Domestic per capita comsumption 2.1 kg / day
Heat equivalent almost 10kW / hr
(Sánchez G M 1993 Diaz J R. 2000)
Biomass
Alternative
Woodfuel estimated domestic consumption 500,000 ton/year
with efficient stoves 50 % could be saved
which means
250,000 tons / year enough to generate
292 GW/hr electric assuming 30 % efficiency
11 % current electrical consumption in Yucatan.
Other Uses:
Cottage industries
Wood fuel is
the energy
source
for many
cottage
industries.
Most can’t
afford other
fuels
Energy
efficiency it
usually very
low.
Other Uses:
Charcoal
Charcoal Production
Peasants produce charcoal to use wood that otherwise would be burnt,
when clearing land for shifting agriculture.
Earth kilns have very low yields
No cash investment,
Capital is the scarce
production factor
Charcoal marketing
chain in Yucatan
Prices per kilogram in Mexican pesos, exchage rate 10.5 per US $
Small
Vehicle owner
½ to 3 tons
Field
(Peasant)
$1.30
Field Agent
Wholesale Merida $1.70
retailer
$2.00
Merida
Restaurant $2.00
Consumer $3.50
Transport
(cost $0.30)
Mexico City
Warehouse
(cost $1.70)
Mexico City
Restaurant
$4.00
Mexico City consumer
$7.00
Charcoal
Charcoal production
transforms forest
resources in wages
at rural labor
opportunity cost.
Imperfect market.
Wholesaler has best
margin.
Waste of natural
capital.
Great environmental
cost.
Charcoal is:
Clear example of
non sustainable
resource
management.
Subsitence jobs
It takes more than
just capital flows for
a change.
Implications for the
structure of agriculture
food security
Questions?...
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