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INTEGRATED ANALYSIS AND
MONITORING OF URBAN
RESILIENCE
La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
Dr. Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno
Resilient Cities 2015
June 10, 2015
Bonn, Germany
DISASTER
OPPORTUNITY
SPATIAL STRATEGIES AND
RECOMMEDNATIONS FOR
INCREASING RESILIENCE
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Objectives of the study
1. Evaluate the impacts caused by Hurricane Odile
2. Evaluate capacities for preparing, responding, coping, and adapting to
natural hazards
3. Develop a priority list of cross- sectoral
recommendations specific to locations across the city
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
A spatial approach to measuring
resilience
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Resiliencia
Our approach
“The ability of a system,
community or society exposed to
hazards to resist, absorb,
accommodate to and
recover from the effects of
a hazard in a timely and
efficient manner, including
through the preservation and
restoration of its essential
basic structures and
functions.”
(UNISDR, 2009)
Spatial
Temporal
Inter-sectorial
Participatory
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Proceso del estudio
Step 1: Creation of the Resilience Committee
Step 2: Analysis of base capacities: intuitions, economic, social,
infrastructure.
Step 3: Evaluation of vulnerabilities e impacts
Step 4: Evaluation of priorities, coping capacities and
greater urgencies.
Step 5: Geospatial Analysis to evaluate coping and adaptation
capacities
Step 6: Resilience evaluation: geospatial and quantitative
comparison of various capacities.
Step 7: Identification and prioritization of resilience strategies
through a participatory process
Proceso vivo e interactivo
Federal
Estado
Comité de Resiliencia
IMPLEMENTACIÓN Y
MONITOREO
Municipio
+
COMUNICACIÓN y
TRANSPARENCIA
+
+
INTERSECTORIAL
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Carácter del Proceso
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Community survey
•
•
•
•
•
26 questions regarding Hurricane Odile
200 surveys administered (rapid study)
117 AGEBs (geostatistical units) represented / 76 colonias represented
60,815* households in these AGEBs
157,717* population over 15 year sold in these AGEBs
• 254 unique spatial attributes derived for AGEB (GIS)
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Data used in the analytical process
Previous studies:
PLAN DE ACCIÓN ANTE EL CAMBIO
CLIMÁTICO PARA LA PAZ Y SUS ZONAS
COLINDANTES
Adaptación y mitigación
LA PAZ, CU IDAD SO STE NIBLE
B an co Inter-A m erican o de D esarrollo
Informe final
Atlas de Riesgos y Peligros Naturales del
Municipio de La Paz, BCS 2012
Reporte Sistema de Indicadores para la Plataforma de
Ciudades Emergentes y Sostenibles
LA PAZ, CIU DAD SOSTE N IBLE
B an co Interam ericano de D esarrollo
Reporte: Análisis Histórico del Uso del Suelo y Futura Huella Urbana
LA PAZ, CIU DAD SO STE N IBLE
B an co Interam ericano de D esarrollo
Reporte: Vulnerabilidad Ante el Cambio Climático
para la Plataforma de Ciudades Emergentes y Sostenibles
Preparado para:
Revisión - 22 de agosto 2012
© 2012 GeoAdaptive, LLC
La Paz – Ciudad Sostenible del BID | Reporte Evaluación por Indicadores
2
Fundación Internacional de la Comunidad (ICF) y Fundación FEMSA
Preparado
para:
© 2012 GeoAdaptive,
LLC
La Paz – Ciudad Sostenible del BID | Análisis de Huella Urbana
Fundación Internacional de la Comunidad (ICF) y Fundación FEMSA
Preparado
para:
© 2012 GeoAdaptive,
LLC
Noviembre 22, 2012
Revisión Final
Vulnerabilidad ante el Cambio Climático | La Paz, Baja California Sur
Número de obra
LA-803003996-N3-2012
Coordinación:
Antonina Ivanova Boncheva
Alfredo Sergio Bermúdez Contreras
1 7 d e a b r i l d e 2 021 2
La Paz, Baja California Sur
Soluciona Arquitectura y Construcción S.A de C.V.
Garmendia No. 55 Local B
Hermosillo, Sonora
(662) 213 00 81
[email protected]
15 noviembre 2013
2 2 d e a g o s t2
o de 2012
Fundación Internacional de la Comunidad (ICF) y Fundación FEMSA
ESTE PROGRAMA ES DE CARÁCTER PÚBLICO, NO ES PATROCINADO NI PROMOVIDO POR PARTIDO POLÍTICO ALGUNO Y SUS RECURSOS
PROVIENEN DE LOS IMPUESTOS QUE PAGAN TODOS LOS CONTRIBUYENTES. ESTA PROHIBIDO EL USO DE ESTE PROGRAMA CON FINES
POLÍTICOS, ELECTORALES, DE LUCRO Y OTROS DISTINTOS A LOS ESTABLECIDOS. QUIEN HAGA USO INDEBIDO DE LOS RECURSOS DE
ESTE PROGRAMA DEBERÁ SER DENUNCIADO Y SANCIONADO DE ACUERDO CON LA LEY APLICABLE Y ANTE LA AUTORIDAD COMPETENTE.
Diagnóstico ICES
Interviews & Focus Groups
Civil society
Academic sector
Private sector
Municipal government
State government
Federal government
Community survey
PACC-LAP
Atlas de Riesgos
Participatory Mapping
PIMUS
Spatial data:
• INEGI (census)
• UABCS (hazards)
• SEDATU (infrastructure)
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Guiding questions
1.
What impacts occurred as a result of
hurricane Odile?
2.
What are the baseline capacities of the city?
(institutional, infrastructural, and social)
3.
How did the city respond to Hurricane Odile?
4.
What can be done to increase resilience?
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Methodological approach
Baseline
capacities
Needs and
uses
Vulnerability
(Additional)
Capacity to
cope and
respond
The “Normal” to maintain
essential basic structures
and functions
Stress – during normal
conditions
Stress – during hazard
conditions
Impacts
Additional
capacity to
adapt and
prepare
Redefines “normal”
Methodological approach (example: potable water sector)
Baseline
capacities
Needs and
uses
Vulnerability
(Additional)
Capacity to
cope and
respond
Impacts
Additional
capacity to
adapt and
prepare
Current water extraction rate
and water network coverage
Daily water use and
population
Potential exposure to
multiple hazards, access to
basic services, income,
education, etc.
Services and supplies offered
post-Odile
% households without water
service X days without water
Proximity to water resources
and facilities
Methodological approach (example: potable water sector)
Baseline
capacities
Needs and
uses
Vulnerability
(Additional)
Capacity to
cope and
respond
Impacts
Additional
capacity to
adapt and
prepare
Urban Resilience –
water sector
Methodological approach (example: potable water sector)
Urban Resilience –
water sector
Urban resilience (water sector)
Navarro Rubio
Lease resilient Colonias
Conchalito
Manuel
Marquez de
León
La Pasión
Average relative score per
total colonial area
Col. Granjas Manuel Marquez de Leon
-3.97
Col. Marquez de Leon
-3.75
Col. SN_2
-3.75
Col. Vivah El Progreso
-3.24
Col. Lagunitas
-2.91
High resilience
Low resilience
Methodological approach
Sector
Weights assigned based on
committee input
Electricity
x9
Emergency services
and infrastructure
x7
Transportation
x5
Health
x5
Water
x4
Communication
x4
Food and basic
provisions
x4
Final spatial
result: Cross-
sectoral urban
resilience
How was the city impacted by
Hurricane Odile?
• Social and economic
• Critical infrastructure
• Duration
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Damage Inventory
Housing
Energy
Road System
Potable water
Education
Health
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Esterito
Agustín Olachea &
Ampl. Navarro Rubio
Housing
Impacts
Nivel de
impacto
Impacto
Tipo de impacto
(viviendas)
1,036
131
Vista
Hermosa, Las
Lagunitas,
Villas de
Guadalupe
131
872
32
Agua
Escondida
36
Daños de las viviendas
$720,500
Daños menores de las viviendas
$720,500
Daños menores de las viviendas
$24,416,000
Daños parciales de las viviendas
$5,440,000
Daños totales de las viviendas
$6,120,000
Reubicaciones de las viviendas
MXN $36.7 millones
La Pitaya
Calafia
La Passión
Fuentes: SEDATU, entrevista con Corredores con Causa, Carmen Durán
DIF, Juan Valenzuela Desarrollo Social, encuesta comunitaria
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones
estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa
autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Esterito
Agustín Olachea &
Ampl. Navarro Rubio
Electricity Service
Impacts
Conchalito
Vista
Hermosa, Las
Lagunitas,
Villas de
Guadalupe
Agua
Escondida
Colonias vulnerables
Lineas de alta tensión
Días sin servicio electrico
0
1-3
4-7
8-14
>14
La Passión
Fuentes: CFE, encuesta comunitaria, BID-ICES 2012, INEGI 2010
"Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas
hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015
GeoAdaptive Inc.
•
¿How much time can you sustain or support the impact
conditions before you experience an irreversible damage?
Low
dependency
High
dependency
Impact assessment
During September 2014, Hurricane Odile, a Category 4 hurricane made landfall over Baja California Sur.
The most intense hurricane to hit the region since 1976, Odile caused a multitude of impacts. Regional
electric transmission lines were damaged, causing impacts on many other sectors.
TOTAL COST: MXN $2.9 billion
MXN $212 million Water (FONDEN)
More than 41 colonias, 28% of total population went
without water for 8+ days.
MXN $93 million
Housing (FONDEN and INFONAVIT)
3,310 homes, approximately 4% of the housing stock in La
Paz- in losses
MXN $130 million Urban Transportation (SEDATU)
Streets in 5 colonias were blocked for more than 7 days.
MXN $58 million
Tourism (Emprotur)
33 damaged hotels, 11 restaurants, and 7 marinas
This document contains preliminary results of the study of Resilience Strategies for La Paz for the ICF and IADB.
It is forbidden to distribute without prior authorization © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc. All rights reserved.
Impact assessment
Street Lights
20 000 damaged (SEDATU)
Basic services, ATMs, Banks and
Emergency services
Lack of fuel and electricity
Health
Lack of fuel for power plant
(ISSSTE)
Education
7149 students displaced from
school (3 shelters)
All closed for 2 weeks
Environment
160 000 damaged trees (Desarrollo
Sustentable)
This document contains preliminary results of the study of Resilience Strategies for La Paz for the ICF and IADB.
It is forbidden to distribute without prior authorization © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc. All rights reserved.
¿How and where can resilience be
increased in La Paz?
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Evaluation results: Cross-sectoral Resilience
Urban Resilience
Resilience score per sector
Maximum relative Minimum relative
score (per total
score (per total
colonia area)
colonia area)
Sector
Transportation
4.075
-4.925
Food and basic provisions
Emergency infrastructure
and services
2.7
-3.6
2.2
-6.2
Electricity
2.1
-2.4
Communication
2.03
-3.4
Medical services
1.3
-5.3
Water
0.2
-4.4
High resilience
Low resilience
Process of identifying resilience strategies
ICES-Plan de Acción
PACC
Atlas de riesgo
Synthesis of existing
strategies and proposed
works
Validation, prioritization, and
focus groups with local and
regional experts
Integration of impact and
resilience evaluations
Resilience Road Map
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Recommendations
Protection
Formalize existing emergency protocols
and develop a regional and local
emergency management plan.
Coordination
Increase institutional capacity,
coordination, and communication.
Preparedness and Adaptation
Support preparedness and adaptation at
the household level, reducing social
vulnerability.
Resilient Housing and Planning
Integrate vulnerability, risk, and resilience
studies into city planning efforts.
Accessibility and Capacity
Increase, monitor, and manage capacities
of basic services. Ensure access to services
across and between communities
This document contains preliminary results of the study of Resilience Strategies for La Paz for the ICF and IADB
It is forbidden to distribute without prior authorization © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc. All rights reserved.
Limitations of the study
• Rapid study of 4 months | Pilot project
• Limited coordination between agencies that could
facilitate better reporting of impacts
• Limited spatial data related to recovery, adaptation and
preparedness
• Needs to also incorporate environmental resilience
Este documento contiene resultados preliminares para el estudio "Intervenciones estratégicas hacia un futuro resiliente: La Paz". Es prohibido distribuir sin previa autorización. © 2015 GeoAdaptive Inc.
Proceso VIVO e interactivo
Thanks
[email protected]
www.geoadaptive.com
+1-617-832-5396